Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022

Valid 00Z Tue May 31 2022 - 00Z Thu Jun 02 2022

...An outbreak of severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and heavy rain will
likely continue into tonight across parts of the northern Plains and the
upper Midwest ahead of an intensifying low pressure system...

...Severe weather and heavy rain concerns will shift farther south from
Oklahoma to the lower Missouri Valley on Tuesday...

...Colder temperatures and unsettled weather will continue across parts of
the Intermountain West with locally heavy mountain snow into tonight for
the northern Rockies...

...Critical fire weather concerns will remain in place today across the
Southern Rockies and Southern High Plains...

A low pressure system currently intensifying and moving out of the central
Plains will be the main focus for additional outbreak of severe weather
and bursts of heavy rain through tonight.  The heavy rain and severe
thunderstorms are expected to expand northward across the eastern portions
of the Dakotas and into Minnesota as the low pressure system interacts and
derives more energy from an active frontal boundary.  Given the very moist
and unstable air surging north ahead of a cold front, numerous severe
thunderstorms are expected to accompany with large to giant hail, damaging
winds and tornadoes, including the potential for a couple of intense and
long-track tornadoes, where the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a
Moderate Risk of severe weather through tonight.

In addition to the severe weather, the showers and thunderstorms will
produce heavy rainfall and there will be concerns for areas of flash
flooding across the central and northern Plains and especially the Red
River Valley area where the Weather Prediction Center has indicated a
Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall.  Additional heavy rain is expected
across parts of central and eastern North Dakota and possibly reaching
into parts of northwest Minnesota as this low center approaches and
crosses the region through tonight.  By Tuesday, a rather deep and intense
low pressure system for late May is forecast to head into southern Canada.
 Strong gusty winds behind the system will push much colder air south
toward the central Plains.  Near and ahead of the cold front, the threat
for severe weather and locally heavy rainfall is forecast to rapidly
develop from Oklahoma northeastward through the lower Missouri Valley
later on Tuesday.  The front is forecast to become slow-moving on
Wednesday when it reaches into the southern Plains.  This will keep a good
chance of showers and thunderstorms in place from Oklahoma northeastward
into the evening.  Rounds of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms are
possible in the same general area into Wednesday evening.

Meanwhile, a broad upper trough is forecast to remain in place across much
of the Intermountain West through Tuesday, and this will maintain a large
area of much below normal temperatures and unsettled weather.  In fact,
heavy snowfall will continue into tonight the higher terrain of the
northern Rockies.  Storm total snowfall amounts going through Tuesday of 1
to 3 feet are expected for parts of the Absoroka and Big Horn mountains
where the heaviest precipitation is expected.  The snow is expected to
linger across the northern Rockies on Tuesday before slowly spreading into
the Colorado Rockies Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

Some of the cooler temperatures across the West over the next couple of
days will be spilling down through the southern High Plains and the
southern Rockies which will be welcome news as there remains at least one
more day of critical fire weather concerns given hot and very dry
conditions along with gusty winds.  As a cold front crosses the region,
lowering temperatures will help to reduce the fire danger heading toward
the middle of the week.

Elsewhere, aside from some scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
Florida Peninsula, and the Gulf Coast, generally dry and tranquil weather
will remain in place across the East for a couple more days.  However, the
heat and humidity will be on the increase as high pressure offshore of the
East Coast drives southerly flow up from the Gulf of Mexico.  This will
yield widespread above normal temperatures with many areas seeing
temperatures ranging from the upper 80s to the mid 90s.  The front
upstream across the Plains and Midwest that will be driving severe weather
concerns over the next couple of days will encroach on the East by
midweek, and this will eventually increase the threat of showers and
thunderstorms.  While many areas of the East will be briefly rather hot,
cooler temperatures will be noted over New England as a backdoor cold
front slowly sinks south from southeast Canada.

Kong/Orrison

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php