Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
405 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022

Valid 00Z Wed Jun 01 2022 - 00Z Fri Jun 03 2022

...Frontal system moving southward across eastern and central portions of
the country will continue to drive the threat for severe weather and heavy
rainfall...

...Much cooler temperatures to arrive across the Plains and Midwest
through the middle of the week while heat and humidity increase across the
Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic...

...Some scattered showers expected but mostly tranquil, seasonal
conditions west of the Rockies...

Warm, moist air ahead of a cold front moving south and eastward through
central and eastern portions of the country will continue to fuel
widespread showers and thunderstorms along with the threat for severe
weather and some flash flooding through the short-term forecast period
(Thursday evening). Storms will stretch through the Great Lakes, Ohio
Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and into the Central and Southern Plains
on Wednesday, spreading further into the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and
Lower-Mississippi Valley Thursday. Instances of severe weather and flash
flooding are expected to occur with some of the storms. The Storm
Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe storms
for portions of the Interior Northeast and Upper Ohio Valley for the
chance of strong, gusty winds. Another Slight Risk has been issued for
southwestern Oklahoma through northwestern Texas and portions of the Texas
Panhandle where storms are also expected to produce some strong, gusty
winds as well as carry the risk for large hail and perhaps a tornado. The
risk for severe weather transitions to portions of the southern
Mid-Atlantic Thursday where there is a Slight Risk for gusty winds and
isolated large hail. In addition to the threat for severe weather, there
is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall across portions of
Oklahoma Wednesday. Slow moving storms are forecast to continue over areas
that saw heavy rainfall Tuesday leading to the risk of flash flooding. The
widespread nature of the storms as well as the generally slow movement of
the front may lead to localized instances of heavy rainfall outside of the
Slight Risk area.

Meanwhile, in the Northeast, a stubborn backdoor cold front sliding
southwestward will also continue to trigger scattered showers and
thunderstorms across New York and most of New England. Tempeartures will
be cooler than normal behind the front, particularly across central and
northern New England where highs will be mostly in the 60s Wednesday and
Thursday. 

Temperatures will also be quite cool behind the cold front across the
Plains and Midwest for early June. Highs across the Central High Plains
will struggle to get out of the 50s on Wednesday with 60s expected
elsewhere through the Upper Midwest and most of the Plains outside of
Texas and southern Oklahoma.  In contrast, ahead of the front,
temperatures will be quite warm with highs generally in the 90s. These
temperatures will be particularly above normal for the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic where increasing humidity will also lead to quite steamy,
mid-summer conditions.

In the West, a ridge of high pressure will build aloft leading to mostly
tranquil and seasonal conditions. Temperatures will be within about 10
degrees of normal. Daytime highs are forecast to be in the 70s in the
Pacific Northwest, the 80s for western portions of the Great Basin, and
the low 100s in the Desert Southwest. Highs in the eastern Great Basin
will warm up from the 70s Wednesday into the 80s Thursday as the ridge
shifts a bit eastward. One exception to these conditions will be the
Central Rockies where scattered showers and thunderstorms, as well as a
chance for higher elevation snow, will linger as a shortwave passes
through. The Pacific Northwest will also see shower and thunderstorm
chances increase later Thursday as a Pacific storm system approaches the
region.

Putnam

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php