Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EDT Wed Jun 01 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Jun 02 2022 - 00Z Sat Jun 04 2022

...Severe weather and heavy rainfall possible along a frontal boundary
into the Southern and Eastern U.S. through Thursday with cooler and drier
conditions to follow...

...Quiet and warm conditions across much of the West, with a Pacific
system spreading rain towards the coast on Friday...

...Tropical disturbance likely to approach Florida by Friday and
especially into the weekend...

A very warm, moist, and unstable airmass ahead of a cold front moving into
the South and eastern portions of the country will again set the stage for
widespread showers and thunderstorms along with the threat for severe
weather and some flash flooding heading through the end of the week. The
Storm Prediction Center has highlighted much of this boundary within a
Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms through tonight as this cold front
approaches and slowly crosses the region with large hail and damaging
winds the main threat. Locally heavy to excessive rainfall is possible
along the boundary, with the best chance tonight across parts of northern
Texas into southern Oklahoma as well as parts of the Northeast. On
Thursday, the biggest threat area for severe weather and heavy rain will
shift to the Mid-Atlantic states. The Storm Prediction Center does
currently have a Slight Risk of severe weather depicted here with concerns
for thunderstorms producing damaging wind gusts. An isolated concern for
some flash flooding will be possible especially with strong storms
containing heavy rainfall. Ahead of the front, hot and humid conditions
will continue into Thursday for much of the Southeast into the
Mid-Atlantic, though cooler more seasonable temperatures should follow
behind the cold front.

Out West, a ridge of high pressure will build aloft leading to mostly
tranquil and seasonal conditions, with temperatures averaging about 10
degrees warmer than normal, especially for interior parts of the West. A
Pacific storm system approaching the West Coast later Thursday into Friday
though should begin spreading some showers and thunderstorms into the
Northwest.

A tropical disturbance, with a high chance of development as per the
latest NHC outlook, lifting through the southern Gulf of Mexico will
approach southern Florida on Friday. Heavy rain and thunderstorms will
increase in coverage Friday and especially into Saturday (beyond the short
range period). Flash flooding is likely to be an issue, particularly in
the more urban counties of southeast Florida, with WPC highlighting a
slight to moderate risk across this region Friday into Saturday.

Santorelli

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php