Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Thu Jun 02 2022

Valid 12Z Thu Jun 02 2022 - 12Z Sat Jun 04 2022

...Numerous areas of showers and thunderstorms to impact the southern and
eastern U.S. today with cooler temperatures arriving to end the week...

...Some severe weather will be possible across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic states today...

...A tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to develop over the
southeast Gulf of Mexico and approach south Florida by this weekend...

...Very heavy rainfall and concerns for flash flooding will exist over
south Florida for Friday and Saturday...

A very warm, moist, and unstable airmass along and ahead of a cold front
moving southeast through southern and eastern portions of the country will
favor numerous showers and thunderstorms today from the southern Plains
and lower Mississippi Valley northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic states
and portions of New England. Some localized areas of severe weather will
be possible, and the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Slight Risk
of severe thunderstorms for today and tonight across the Mid-Atlantic
region where thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging winds
gusts and hail. The showers and thunderstorms along the cold front will
also be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, and a few instances
of flash flooding cannot be ruled. On Friday, the aforementioned front
will be settling down into the Southeast and some scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue. Behind the front, cooler and drier air will
be arriving from the Midwest and this will sweep across the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys, and through most of the Mid-Atlantic and portions of
the Northeast.

Meanwhile, a broad area of low pressure near the east coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula will be gradually advancing off to the northeast and should
cross through the far northwest Caribbean Sea through tonight and the
southeast Gulf of Mexico on Friday. This system is likely to develop into
a tropical depression or tropical storm as it approaches south Florida by
early Saturday. Regardless of development, there is a likelihood of very
heavy rainfall across south Florida and the Florida Keys on Friday and
Saturday that will likely result in areas of flash flash flooding. This
will especially be the case across the more sensitive urban corridor of
southeast Florida. Currently, this system is expected to produce as much
as 4 to 8 inches of rain through Saturday with isolated heavier amounts
that may approach 10 inches. The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted
a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across this region as a result.

Over the West, a weak ridge of high pressure will lead to mostly tranquil
and seasonal conditions. However, there will be a weak Pacific storm
system impacting the Pacific Northwest which will bring some scattered
showers and thunderstorms through Friday. The moisture and energy with
this system will stretch downstream across areas of the northern Rockies
and out into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest going into the early
part of the weekend. Scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms are also
expected farther south across the central and southern Plains as southerly
flow returns and moisture begins surging back north.

Orrison

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php