Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 AM EDT Fri Jun 03 2022

Valid 12Z Fri Jun 03 2022 - 12Z Sun Jun 05 2022

...Showers and thunderstorms to impact the southern and eastern U.S. today
with cooler temperatures arriving to end the week...

...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over the southern tip of
Florida through Saturday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
Central/Southern High Plains through Saturday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the southern tip of
Florida Saturday through Sunday morning...

A tropical disturbance is forecast to slowly strengthen to a tropical
storm by Friday evening and move across the southern half of the Florida
Peninsula on Saturday and return to the Atlantic Ocean by Sunday. Heavy
rain will begin to affect portions of Central Florida, South Florida, and
the Florida Keys today and continue through Saturday. Considerable flash
and urban flooding are possible across South Florida and in the Keys.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over
the southern tip of Florida through Saturday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create numerous areas of flash flooding. Furthermore, many
streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers.

The excessive rainfall threat decreases slightly on Saturday to a Slight
Risk of excessive rainfall over the southern tip of Florida from Saturday
into Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small
streams the most vulnerable. Showers and thunderstorms will continue over
Florida on Sunday. Check with the National Hurricane Center for the latest
storm track and intensity.

Meanwhile, a weak front will linger north of the tropical disturbance
extending from the Southeast along the Gulf Coast into the Southern
Plains. The boundary will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms along
and near the front through Sunday morning.

Furthermore, the western end of the front will have a dry line which will
aid in focusing showers/thunderstorms, and some of these storms may become
severe over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains. Therefore, the SPC
has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern High Plains through Saturday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.

The threat of severe thunderstorms lessens on Saturday over parts of the
Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern Plains from Saturday
through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a
minimal threat of tornadoes.

In addition, a weak front moves onshore over the Pacific Northwest on
Friday, moving slowly inland to the Northern Rockies/Great Basin by
Sunday. The system will produce light rain over parts of the Pacific
Northwest and extends eastward to the Northern Rockies through Sunday.

Elsewhere, a front over the Northeast will produce showers and
thunderstorms over parts of New England through Saturday. A second weak
front will move across the area on Saturday, producing more showers and
thunderstorms over parts of New England through Sunday. 

Ziegenfelder

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php