Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
424 PM EDT Fri Jun 03 2022

Valid 00Z Sat Jun 04 2022 - 00Z Mon Jun 06 2022

...Showers and thunderstorms for parts of the central and eastern U.S
tonight....

...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over the southern tip of
Florida through Saturday morning...

...There are Slight Risks of severe thunderstorms over parts of
Central/Southern High Plains, Carolina coast and southern Florida through
Saturday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the southern tip of
Florida Saturday through Sunday morning...

A tropical disturbance is forecast to slowly strengthen into a tropical
storm tonight and move across the southern half of the Florida Peninsula
on Saturday before entering the Atlantic by Sunday. Heavy rain will affect
portions of Central Florida, South Florida, and the Florida Keys through
Saturday. Considerable flash and urban flooding are possible across South
Florida and in the Keys. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk of
excessive rainfall over the southern tip of Florida through Saturday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create numerous areas of flash
flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood, potentially affecting
larger rivers. Severe thunderstorms are also possible over parts of
southern Florida tonight as convective bands move over the peninsula.

The excessive rainfall threat decreases slightly on Saturday to a Slight
Risk of excessive rainfall over the southern tip of Florida from Saturday
into Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small
streams the most vulnerable. Showers and thunderstorms will continue over
Florida on Sunday. Check with the National Hurricane Center for the latest
storm track and intensity.

Meanwhile, a weak front will linger north of the tropical disturbance
extending from the Southeast along the Gulf Coast into the Southern
Plains. The boundary will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms along
and near the front through Sunday afternoon.

Furthermore, the western end of the front, which is connected to a low
over the Southern Plains, will develop a dry line which will aid in
focusing showers/thunderstorms. Some of these storms may become severe
over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern High Plains through Saturday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.

The threat of severe thunderstorms lessens on Saturday over parts of the
Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern Plains from Saturday
through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a
minimal threat of tornadoes. Scattered to isolated showers and
thunderstorms continue for the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley through
Sunday.

In addition, a pair of low pressure systems will move through the Pacific
Northwest over the next couple of days. These systems will produce light
rain from parts of the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Rockies through
Sunday.

Elsewhere, a front over the Northeast will produce showers and
thunderstorms over parts of New England through Saturday. A second weak
front will move across the area on Saturday, producing more showers and
thunderstorms over parts of New England through Sunday. 

Kebede/Ziegenfelder

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php