Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
412 AM EDT Sat Jun 04 2022

Valid 12Z Sat Jun 04 2022 - 12Z Mon Jun 06 2022

...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over the southeastern
tip of Florida through Sunday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of Central
Plains and the southeastern side of the Florida Peninsulas through Sunday
morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central Plains Sunday through Monday morning...

A tropical disturbance is forecast to slowly strengthen to a tropical
storm by Saturday evening after moving across the southern half of the
Florida Peninsula and entering the Atlantic Ocean. Heavy rain will
continue to affect portions of Central Florida, South Florida, and the
Florida Keys today and continue through early Sunday morning. Considerable
flash and urban flooding are possible across South Florida and the Keys.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over
the southeastern tip of Florida through Sunday morning. The associated
heavy rain will create numerous areas of flash flooding. Furthermore, many
streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers.

In addition, the threat of severe thunderstorms comes to Florida on
Saturday. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the southeastern side of the Florida
Peninsulas through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, and
a few tornadoes. The excessive rainfall threat ends early Sunday morning
as the system moves off the Florida Coast by Saturday night. Check with
the National Hurricane Center for the latest storm track and intensity.
After the system moves eastward over the Atlantic, a lingering front and
tropical moisture will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms over
parts of Florida and the Southeast through Monday morning.

Meanwhile, a front and upper-level energy will aid in focusing
showers/thunderstorms, and some of these storms may become severe over
parts of the Central Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk
of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains through Sunday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

The threat of severe thunderstorms expands in areal coverage on Sunday
over parts of the Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains from Sunday through
Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

In addition, multiple weak front moves onshore over the Pacific Northwest
on Saturday into Sunday, moving slowly inland to the Northern
Rockies/Northern High Plains and Great Basin by Monday. The system will
produce light rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest and extends
eastward to the Northern Rockies through Monday.

Elsewhere, a front over the Northeast will produce showers and
thunderstorms over parts of New England through Sunday.

Ziegenfelder

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php