Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
403 AM EDT Tue Jun 07 2022

Valid 12Z Tue Jun 07 2022 - 12Z Thu Jun 09 2022

...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central High Plains and a Slight Risk over parts of the Tennessee/Lower
Mississippi Valleys through Wednesday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains and the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and a
second area over parts of the southern tip of Florida Wednesday morning...

...Record high temperatures will be across portions of Texas...

A front extending from the Great Lakes/Middle Mississippi Valley to the
Northern High Plains will move eastward to the Northeast and the
Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along
and ahead of the boundary. Some of these storms may become severe over
parts of the Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys through Wednesday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and minimal risk of tornadoes.

Furthermore, there will be heavy rain associated with these thunderstorms.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Ohio/Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys through Wednesday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash
flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.
Meanwhile, deep moisture lingering over the southern tip of Florida and
strong sunshine will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy
rain over the area on Tuesday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
of excessive rainfall over the southern tip of Florida through Wednesday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most
vulnerable.

In addition, on Tuesday, a wave of low pressure over the Central Plains
will slowly deepen and move slowly eastward to the Mid-Atlantic by
Thursday. As a result, an area of showers and thunderstorms will develop
along and ahead of the associated boundary. Some of these storms may
become severe. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains through Wednesday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. There will also
be an increased risk of hail over the Central High Plains, two inches or
greater.

 Moreover, there will be heavy rain associated with these thunderstorms.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall with
these thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern Plains through
Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the
most vulnerable.

On Wednesday, the threat of severe thunderstorms over eastern New
Mexico/western Texas to the Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern High
Plains to the Mid-Atlantic from Wednesday through Thursday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and minimal risk for tornadoes.

Moreover, the storms will produce heavy rain along the front from parts of
Northeast to Arkansas/Oklahoma. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal
Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains and the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward to New England from
Wednesday into Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid
runoff with heavy rain.

Meanwhile, upper-level ridging and dry soils will combine to allow
temperatures to rise to record levels over parts of Texas, with high
temperatures in the low to mid-hundreds on Tuesday and Wednesday and from
the upper nineties to one hundred on Thursday.

Additionally, upper-level energy over the Northern Rockies and
Northern/Central Plains will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms
over parts of the region overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning.

Ziegenfelder



Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php