Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
416 PM EDT Wed Jun 08 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Jun 09 2022 - 00Z Sat Jun 11 2022

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio
Valley, Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley tonight...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic and Southeast tonight...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall
over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley on
Thursday night; Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms expands into Southeast
on Friday...

...Excessive heat arrives over central/southern California and the
Southwest on Friday as record high temperatures persist over southeastern
Texas through the weekend...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will spread across the Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys and East Coast tonight as a shortwave swings through the Great
Lakes. Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes, damaging
winds and some hail may impact portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley.
Heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding is possible over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic, extending from northern Virginia to southern New Jersey. A
cold front extending from the Ohio Valley system will be the focus for
potential severe thunderstorms over portions of the Lower Mississippi
Valley and Southeast tonight where damaging winds and isolated hail will
be the main threats. Flash flooding will be possible within areas of
convection, especially over northern Alabama where there's a Slight Risk
of excessive rainfall.

Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will then fan out across
the central Gulf Coast on Thursday as the aforementioned cold front
arrives from the north. Elsewhere, a meandering surface boundary over the
Central/Southern Plains will become the focus for severe thunderstorms and
excessive rainfall Thursday night. A Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms
is in effect for much of this area due to the threat of large hail and
damaging winds caused by clustered and well-organized storms. Rain rates
may be high enough within any storms to produce flash flooding over
portions of central Kansas into southwestern Missouri and northwestern
Arkansas.

A new and deep system arrives over the Pacific Northwest on Thursday.
Isolated areas of heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding over parts of
the coast and interior through Friday. Post-frontal showers and
thunderstorms may develop over parts of the Northern Rockies Friday
afternoon/evening. A shortwave emerging from the Rockies on Thursday
night/Friday will kick out the quasi-stationary boundary draped along the
Southern Plains and develop a low along it. This low may become the focus
for additional severe weather and flash flooding as the aforementioned
convection in Arkansas/Missouri moves into parts of southeastern Arkansas,
central Mississippi and the Tennessee Valley. A Slight Risk of severe
thunderstors is in effect for portions of southeastern Arkansas and
central Mississippi due to the threat of intense wind gusts associated
with bowing mesoscale convective systems (MCSs).

Record breaking excessive heat is forecast over much of the Southwest this
Friday and Saturday due to a building ridge. High temperatures are
expected to be in the upper 90s and 100s for much of central/southern
California as well as the Southwest. Little respite overnight as lows are
also expected to tie or break records across much of the West on Thursday
and Friday nights. Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect for much of the
Southwest. Excessive Heat Watches/Advisories are in effect for much of
central California and parts of western Nevada. Records in southeast Texas
continue to be threatened through the weekend as high temperatures remain
in the low 100s.

Kebede



Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php