Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
353 PM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022

Valid 00Z Sat Jun 11 2022 - 00Z Mon Jun 13 2022

...Dangerous heat to continue from California to the Southern Plains into
the weekend...

...Rain and melting snow to raise flooding concerns across parts of the
Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies through the weekend...

...Severe storms possible in the parts of the Heartland and the East;
growing increasingly hot in the South by Sunday, seasonal temps in the
Northeast...

Sweltering heat will be the story from California to the Southern Plains
this afternoon and this weekend. Numerous Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat
Advisories remain in place across much of the region, as well-above normal
temperatures are forecast to persist into the weekend. Daytime
temperatures are expected to soar 10-20 degrees above normal from
California and the Desert Southwest to Texas and the southern High Plains.
Daytime temps will reach the triple digits in many locations with numerous
records also expected to broken. Overnight lows are forecast to remain
abnormally hot as well, thus increasing the potential for heat-related
illnesses throughout the region. By the start of next week, a pair of
Pacific fronts will bring both precipitation and much cooler temperatures
into California by the latter half of the weekend, forcing the dome of
exceptionally hot temperatures to shift over the Nation's Heartland.

The aforementioned pair of Pacific fronts are forecast to usher widespread
precipitation to the Pacific Northwest, Northern California, and the
northern Rockies on late today and through the weekend. Locally heavy
rainfall, combined with melting snowpack, are expected to induce river and
stream rises, resulting in Flood Watches being issued for portions of
Washington, Oregon, northern Idaho, and western Montana. Temperatures by
Sunday will be quite cool in the Pacific Northwest with daytime highs
averaging 10 to 20 degrees below normal in western Oregon and far northern
California.

Farther east, severe storms working their way towards the central Gulf
Coast this afternoon could produce tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and
large hail. Torrential rainfall rates may also lead to localized areas of
flash flooding. While not as favorable in terms of severe storms, locally
heavy downpours are possible across Florida this afternoon and evening.
For this upcoming weekend, the best potential for areas of severe
thunderstorms will be in the northern High Plains and Midwest where a
series of frontal systems look to setup. The most active day currently
appears to be Sunday where a Slight Risk is in place over the northern
High Plains and the Black Hills. There could also be a chance for severe
weather in the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday as a frontal boundary lifts north
through the region. Saturday features a chance for hit-or-miss showers and
thunderstorms from the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic to the Gulf Coast,
which could impact outdoor plans in these regions. Temperature-wise,
sizzling summer heat will build throughout the Lower Mississippi Valley
and Mid-South Sunday and into early next week, while the Northeast
experiences more seasonal temps over the next few days.

Mullinax

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php