Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022

Valid 00Z Tue Jun 14 2022 - 00Z Thu Jun 16 2022

...Dangerous heat expected to extend from the Mississippi Valley/Midwest
to the Southeast through midweek...

...Flooding and severe thunderstorms threaten the Northern Plains and
Midwest tonight while heavy snow falls over parts of the Northern
Rockies...

...Critical fire weather conditions expected for a large portion of the
Southwest and the Southern/Central Rockies tonight...

Record breaking heat is forecast to spread from the Great Plains today
then into the Mississippi Valley and Southeast through midweek thanks to
the expansion of an upper-level ridge. Excessive Heat Warnings, Watches
and Advisories are in effect for around a third of the country's
population as a result. High temperatures will be in the 90s and 100s with
heat indices likely to be in the upper 90s an 100s. Unfortunately, there
won't be much respite in the evenings as temperatures are only expected to
fall into the mid to upper 70s in many places. This multi-day heat wave
will pose a particular danger to those with heat sensitivities and poor
ventilation/AC.

Meanwhile, an anomalous upper-level trough will continue dropping
temperatures across the Northwest through midweek. Highs in the upper 40s
to low 60s will be low enough to tie or break existing records in some
isolated places. Some of this frigid air will interact with moisture on
the backside of a preceding low pressure system to produce heavy mountain
snow over portions of the Montana Rockies as well as in and around Glacier
National Park through Tuesday night. Heavy snow is likeliest down to 5000
feet with snow possible as low as 4500 feet. Snowfall totals of 2-4 inches
above 5000 feet and over 12 inches above 6000 feet are likely when all is
said and done.

An upper trough over the Rockies will deepen as it moves into the Plains
tonight and tomorrow. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
focus along the attendant fronts from the Northern Plains to the Ohio
Valley and Maine tonight before expanding into the Central Plains, Middle
Mississippi Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Southeast on Tuesday and Wednesday.
There's a chance for flash flooding and severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Northern Plains and Midwest tonight. Strong winds, hail and a
potential tornado or two are possible with respect to any severe
thunderstorms that form. Isolated severe storms are possible in northern
Maine tonight as well as another low pressure system makes its way into
the Canadian maritime. The severe thunderstorm threat shifts into the
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday out ahead of
the slow moving system. The greatest severe threat should remain confined
to the Upper Midwest on Wednesday where a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms is in effect. The risk of flash flooding is marginal on
Tuesday and Wednesday over parts of the central and eastern U.S.

Kebede

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php