Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
434 PM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022

Valid 00Z Wed Jun 15 2022 - 00Z Fri Jun 17 2022

...There is a Risk of severe thunderstorms over the Upper Midwest that
moves eastward every day to the Lower Great Lakes and a second area over
the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast that moves to the Southeast/Central Gulf Coast
from Tuesday into Thursday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians and a second area over parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valley through Wednesday morning...

...Excessive heat over parts of Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes to
the Southeast on Tuesday and Wednesday...

...Late season heavy snow event near Glacier National Park, Montana, will
slowly wind down by Wednesday morning...

A front extending from the Upper Mississippi Valley roughly southwestward
to the Central High Plains/Southwest will slowly move eastward to
Northeast to Middle Mississippi Valley/Central Plains by Thursday evening.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the boundary
from the Upper Midwest to the Lower Great Lakes; some of these
thunderstorms will be severe. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk
of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley near
the Canadian border and a second area over roughly the Middle Mississippi
Valley/Central Plains through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

In addition, the thunderstorms will have heavy rain associated with them.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall with
these thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley through
Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the
most vulnerable.

The severe thunderstorm threat increases and moves near the Upper Great
Lakes on Wednesday as the front moves eastward. Therefore, the SPC has
issued an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over the Upper Great Lakes
and the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley from Wednesday into Thursday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In
addition, there is an increased threat of EF2 to EF5 tornadoes and hail
two inches or greater over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and parts
of the Upper Great Lakes.

Furthermore, there is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Upper Great Lakes and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley from Wednesday
into Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized
areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with
heavy rain.

On Thursday, the severe thunderstorm threat decreases slightly as the
front moves eastward. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Great Lakes to the Central
Appalachians. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In
addition, some heavy rain may be associated with these thunderstorms over
parts of the Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic.

Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Southeast, and some of the thunderstorms will be severe. Therefore, the
SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southeast through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.

Upper-level impulses and a front nearby on Wednesday will produce showers
and thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast/Central Gulf Coast, with
some of the storms becoming severe. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight
Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast/Central Gulf
Coast from Wednesday into Thursday morning. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.

In addition, dangerous heat will continue to build across an expansive
portion of the U.S., with Excessive Heat Watches, Excessive Heat Warnings,
and Heat Advisories currently extending from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes
to the Southeast --impacting nearly a third of the U.S. population. A dome
of high pressure is expected to generate well above-normal to
record-breaking temperatures across the region for the rest of Tuesday and
Wednesday. This heat, combined with high humidity, will likely produce
heat indices well into the triple digits in many locations. Although
above-normal temperatures are forecast to continue, some moderation is
expected for a few locations on Thursday.

Additionally, dry conditions and gusty winds are expected to produce
another day of elevated to critical fire weather conditions across
portions of the
Southwest into the Central/Southern Rockies and High Plains. Red Flag
Warnings are in effect across portions of southwestern Colorado and
northern New Mexico, where conditions are expected to be favorable for the
easy ignition and rapid spread of fires on Tuesday.

Furthermore, late-season heavy snow across the northern Rockies will
slowly wind down by Wednesday morning. A Winter Storm Warning remains in
effect for parts of northwest Montana, including Glacier National Park,
where elevations above 5000 ft are expected to see a few more inches of
heavy snow.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php