Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
411 AM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022

Valid 12Z Wed Jun 15 2022 - 12Z Fri Jun 17 2022

...Dangerously hot and humid conditions to persist from the Upper Midwest
to the Southeast...

...Severe thundertorms likely across portions of the Upper Midwest today...

...Excessive Heat forecast to return to parts to the Southwest on
Thursday...

Far-reaching Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories remain in place
from Michigan to northern Florida, as an extensive heat wave is expected
to continue.  Another day of above-normal to record-breaking heat is
expected, with high humidity driving the heat indicies for many locations
well into the triple digits once again.  While some moderation is forecast
for Thursday, with temperatures easing a few degrees especially across the
Upper Midwest, much of the region will remain above normal, with areas of
record-setting temperatures persisting into the latter part of the week.

A well-defined cold front that brought below normal temperatures to the
Northwest and northern Rockies earlier in the week, will continue to push
across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region today.  There is a
significant threat that thunderstorms developing along the front today
will become strong to severe.  The Storm Prediction Center has maintained
an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms today across portions of
southeastern Minnesota and northeastern Iowa to Upper Michigan, where
several tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging winds all appear
likely.  In addition to damaging winds and large hail, heavy rainfall,
resulting in isolated to scattered flash flooding, is possible as well.

Farther to the south, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop in the hot and humid airmass in place across the East.  Some of
these storms may also become strong to severe, especially from the
Southeast to the central Appalachians, where damaging winds and areas of
large hail are possible today.

High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories are in effect for portions of
northern Montana and the western Dakotas.  A strong area of low pressure
centered to the north over southern Canada is expected to support strong
winds, gusting to as high as 65 mph, across the region today.

On Thursday, as the previously noted front continues to push east, the
threat for severe thunderstorms is forecast to shift into the eastern
Great Lakes, upper Ohio Valley, and the Mid Atlantic.  Damaging winds are
expected to be the primary threat, however some areas of large hail and a
few tornadoes are possible.

After some relief, the heat is forecast to return to parts of the western
U.S., with temperatures forecast to climb well above-normal across much of
the Great Basin, Rockies, and Southwest on Thursday.  An Excessive Heat
Warning has been issued for parts of interior Southern California and
Arizona, where daytime highs will once again soar well into the triple
digits. 

Pereira

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php