Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
410 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Jun 16 2022 - 00Z Sat Jun 18 2022

...There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms and a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall over Wisconsin through Thursday morning...

...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Lower Great Lakes/Central Appalachians from Thursday into Friday morning...

...Excessive heat over parts of the Great Lakes to the Southeast on
Wednesday...

...An Elevated Risk of fire weather over parts of the Central High
Plains/Central Rockies on Wednesday and a Critical Risk of fire weather
over parts of the Great Basin on Thursday...

A front extending from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward to the Southern
High Plains/Southwest will move slowly eastward to Northeast/Mid-Atlantic
Coast to the Middle Mississippi Valley/Central Plains by Friday evening.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the boundary
from the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes to the Lower Great Lakes/Central
Appalachians through Thursday; some of these thunderstorms will be severe.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over
parts of Wisconsin through Thursday morning. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there is an increased
threat of EF2 to EF5 tornadoes, severe thunderstorm wind gust 65 knots or
greater, and hail two inches or greater over parts of Wisconsin.

In addition, the thunderstorms will have heavy rain associated with them.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over
parts of Wisconsin through Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

The severe thunderstorm threat decreases slightly and moves eastward to
the Lower Great Lakes/Central Appalachians on Thursday. Therefore, the SPC
has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over the Lower Great
Lakes/Central Appalachians from Thursday into Friday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Furthermore, there is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms along parts of
the cold front over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley/Central Plains
from Thursday into Friday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there is a Marginal Risk of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley/Central
Plains from Thursday into Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will
create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience
rapid runoff with heavy rain.

On Friday, the severe thunderstorm threat decreases slightly as the front
settles southward over the southern Mid-Atlantic to Ohio Valley.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic to Ohio Valley. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic/Southeast/Central Gulf Coast, mainly from late evening
through the morning, and some of the thunderstorms will be severe.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast/Central Gulf Coast through Thursday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of
tornadoes.

Moreover, a front will develop over the Pacific Northeast, Great Basin,
California by Thursday morning and very slowly move eastward to the
Northern Intermountain Region/Great Basin by Friday. The system will
produce rain over parts of the region from Thursday into Friday. Diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms will also develop over parts of the
Central/Southern Rockies and Southwest on Friday.

In addition, dangerous heat will continue over the Great Lakes to the
Southeast, with Excessive Heat Watches, Excessive Heat Warnings, and Heat
Advisories currently extending from the Great Lakes to the Southeast.
Upper-level ridging will contribute to record-breaking temperatures across
the region for Wednesday into Thursday. This heat, combined with high
humidity, will likely produce heat indices well into the triple digits
over the Southeast Wednesday. The above-normal temperatures will continue
over the Southeast on Friday.

Additionally, on Wednesday, dry conditions and gusty winds will produce an
elevated risk of fire weather over the Central High Plains and Central
Rockies. Finally, on Thursday, the fire weather threat moves westward to
the Great Basin, where a critical risk of fire weather is over the area.


Ziegenfelder

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php