Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
409 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

Valid 12Z Thu Jun 16 2022 - 12Z Sat Jun 18 2022

...Dangerous heat and humidity to persist across portions of the Midwest
and Southeast today...

...Severe thunderstorms likely to develop this afternoon and evening
across parts of the upper Ohio Valley and Upstate New York...

...Monsoon moisture to bring an increasing chance for showers and
thunderstorms across the Southwest late in week...

Another day of above-normal temperatures is expected across much of the
U.S. today, with Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings remaining in
effect across a large portion of the Midwest, Mid-South, and the
Southeast.  An Excessive Heat Warning is also in effect for parts of
interior Southern California and Arizona. 

One area where temperatures are forecast to be seasonal to below-normal is
across the Pacific Northwest and Northern California where a well-defined
cold front will be slowly pushing east.  The front will continue to edge
farther south and east, bringing much cooler temperatures across Southern
California into the Great Basin by weekend.  Strong, gusty winds are
expected ahead of and along the front, with High Wind Watches in effect
for portions of the Great Basin on Friday.  These strong winds along with
dry conditions will support elevated to critical fire weather conditions,
prompting Red Flag Warnings for portions of central Nevada.  

A cool down is forecast for the Southwest as well.  Monsoon moisture
surging into the region will support increasing shower and thunderstorm
development and lower daytime temperatures beginning Friday and continuing
into the weekend.  These storms will have the potential to produce strong,
gusty winds, and heavy downpours, which may result in localized flooding.

In contrast to the cooler temperatures in the West, heat is forecast to
build further across the central to the northern Plains and Rockies, with
daytime temperatures climbing 10-20 degrees above normal in many locations
Friday and Saturday.

Back in the East, showers and thunderstorm will continue to develop ahead
of a frontal system as it moves east across the lower Great Lakes and
upper Ohio Valley later today.  Scattered severe thunderstorms are
expected to spread across parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley this
afternoon and evening.  Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes
can be expected.  Some strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail and
damaging wind are also expected to develop farther west along the front as
it stalls across the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley today.  The
front will continue to push south and east, focusing additional showers
and thunderstorms across the Northeast, Mid Atlantic, and Ohio Valley on
Friday, before moving offshore, with much cooler and drier conditions
spreading across the region in time for the weekend.

Pereira

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php