Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
257 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

Valid 00Z Sat Jun 18 2022 - 00Z Mon Jun 20 2022

...Dangerous heat persists across the Deep South this Father's Day
weekend, while also building into the central/northern Plains...

...Approaching cold front to ignite scattered showers & storms from the
Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Southeast coast this evening and lead to
stormy weather in Florida/Gulf Coast States on Saturday...

...Unsettled weather located across the West with showers and
thunderstorms impacting the northern Great Basin/Rockies, Central/Southern
Rockies & Southwest, while a Critical Risk of fire weather remains in
place over parts of the Great Basin into the Southwest through Saturday...

The weather pattern for Father's Day weekend features a highly amplified
jet stream pattern with a pair of anomalous upper troughs setting up shop
over the West Coast and Northeast. Sandwiched in between is a building
heat dome in the form of an upper level ridge over the Nation's Heartland
and extending on south to the Gulf Coast. The hottest temperatures versus
normal over the weekend will be situated in the Northern and Central
Plains where daytime highs will range between 20-30 degrees above normal
and record breaking heat around 100 degrees is expected. Record heat is
also possible along the Gulf Coast on Saturday and Sunday where daytime
highs from the upper-90s to the century mark are forecast. Combined with
dew points as high as the low 70s in parts of the Southeast, steamy heat
indices will soar as high as 110 degrees. In contrast, the pair of
aforementioned troughs will keep temperatures seasonably cool in the
Northeast and along the West Coast. In fact, by Saturday some parts of the
Pacific Northwest and northern New England will struggle to get above 60
degrees! These upper troughs linger into Father's Day, forcing
temperatures to remain cooler and more comfortable for dads along the West
Coast and into the Northeast. Meanwhile, the stifling heat looks to stick
around in the Heartland on Father's Day.

Father's Day weekend does look to be stormy for a handful of regions
across the Lower 48. Starting in the East, a cold front tracking through
the Mid-Atlantic and into the Mid-South this evening will be responsible
for producing areas of showers and thunderstorms from the Middle
Mississippi Valley to the Southeast. The Storm Prediction Center has
issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe storms from the southern
Appalachians to the Southeast coast through early this evening. A few
storms may also have the potential to produce isolated instances of flash
flooding. Farther west, a lifting frontal system in the northern Plains
will foster an environment for developing thunderstorms this afternoon.
The Northern Rockies may also see strong storms form, thanks to the upper
trough coming ashore along the Pacific Northwest coast. Pop-up showers and
storms remain in the forecast across parts of the Northern Rockies and
Plains on Saturday as the upper trough tracks farther inland. There is a
Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall in parts of the interior Northwest on
Saturday and into the northern High Plains on Sunday, where localized
flash flooding is possible. Meanwhile, the front surging south across the
Southeast is set to help trigger additional heavy thunderstorms in Florida
and parts of the Gulf Coast. Excessive Rainfall may lead to localized
flash flooding potential, prompting the issuance of a Marginal Risk for
central Florida.

In the Southwest, early season monsoonal moisture will work its way north
from Arizona and New Mexico on north into the central Rockies. Throughout
Father's Day weekend, daily rounds of diurnally driven thunderstorms
tapping into anomalous atmospheric moisture levels will result in potent
thunderstorms that contain heavy rainfall rates. Flash flooding is
possible in these parts of the Southwest and into the southern/central
Rockies, which has prompted the issuance of daily Marginal Risks for
Excessive Rainfall from the Weather Prediction Center each day this
weekend. Areas most prone to flash flooding are near residual burn scars
across the Four Corners region on north into southern Wyoming. Meanwhile,
some thunderstorms may not contain much of any rainfall in parts of the
Great Basin, resulting in dry thunderstorms. These storms could ignite
other wildfires in parts of southwest Wyoming, eastern Utah, and into the
heart of the Four Corners region. There is a Critical Risk for fire
weather in the central Great Basin on south into the Lower Colorado River
Valley this evening, as well as an Elevated Risk in the central High
Plains. The same threat areas are expected to continue (Critical risk in
the Great Basin, Elevated Risk in the central High Plains) as strong
winds, low humidity levels, and dry fuels are forecast to last into the
first half of the weekend.

Snell/Mullinax

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php