Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 AM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022

Valid 12Z Sat Jun 18 2022 - 12Z Mon Jun 20 2022

...Dangerous heat to engulf the Deep South and much of the Nation's
Heartland this Father's Day Weekend; considerably cooler temps in the
Northeast and along the West Coast...

...Approaching cold front to ignite scattered showers & storms from
Florida to the Lower Mississippi Valley today...

...Unsettled weather located across the West with showers and
thunderstorms across the northern Rockies and Central/Southern Rockies &
Southwest; a Critical Risk of fire weather remains in place over parts of
the Great Basin into the Southwest through Sunday...

A significantly amplified jet stream pattern that features a deep trough
in the West, a strong ridge in the Heartland, and a second anomalous
trough over the Northeast will be the primary driver in the resulting
weather throughout the Lower 48 this Father's Day weekend. The hottest
temperatures versus normal will be positioned in the northern and central
Plains where Excessive Heat Watches and Heat Advisories have been posted
due to heat indices ranging between 100-110 degrees each late morning and
afternoon each day. Hazy, hot, and humid conditions are also on tap in the
Deep South today, resulting in the issuance of Heat Advisories from
central Florida to the Lower Mississippi Valley. In contrast, the West
Coast, Great Lakes, and Northeast will experience considerably cooler than
normal temperatures. Daytime highs will struggle to get out of the 60s in
the Pacific Northwest and New England on Saturday, which for June 19 runs
about 15-20 degrees below normal. A similar temperature footprint is
expected on Father's Day with triple digit heat expected from Texas on
north to the Dakotas. Some parts of the Plains and Gulf Coast could see
some record breaking heat for both warm minimum temps and daytime max
temps. In addition, a very cool Father's Day morning is expected along the
West Coast and from the Ohio Valley to the Northeast coast. A few record
breaking cool minimum temps could occur, especially in the central
Appalachians and in the northern Mid-Atlantic. Temperatures really heat up
throughout the Mississippi Valley on Monday as the heat dome over the
Plains gradually pushes east over the region.

In terms of unsettled weather, the most active areas will be around the
periphery of the heat dome positioned over the Nation's Heartland.
Starting in Florida, an approaching cold front from the north and tropical
moisture aloft will lead to diurnally driven widespread showers and
thunderstorms each day this weekend. Rainfall rates may be heavy enough to
lead to flash flooding in spots, prompting Marginal Risks for Excessive
Rainfall to be issued in parts of The Sunshine State each day this
weekend. Over the Lower Mississippi Valley, a quasi-stationary front will
be the focus for setting off showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon.
Some storms in the Lower Mississippi Valley could be severe. In the
Southwest, a surge in monsoonal moisture is set to trigger numerous
showers and storms throughout the Four Corners region, especially in the
higher elevations across eastern Arizona, New Mexico, and southern
Colorado. Marginal Risks for flash flooding are also in place in these
states with locations with the more sensitive soils at highest risk for
flash flooding. Elsewhere, the slow moving upper trough in the Pacific
Northwest will spawn showers and thunderstorms from the Pacific Northwest
to the northern High Plains. The wettest Day will be Father's Day where
anomalous moisture and the close proximity of the upper low will support
heavier rainfall rates. Some thunderstorms are also possible in the
northern Great Lakes along a lifting warm front Father's Day afternoon.
Lastly, a lifting occluded low will keep unsettled weather around northern
New England throughout the weekend.

Fire weather remains an issue in the Southwest and central High Plains
throughout the weekend. A Critical Risk for fire weather is in place over
the central Great Basin today, with another Critical Risk issued on
Father's Day over southern Utah and northern Arizona. The central High
Plains will witness favorable fire weather conditions throughout the
weekend, resulting in Elevated Risks each day this weekend. Lastly, high
pressure will result in mostly dry conditions in the Mid-Atlantic, Ohio
and Middle Mississippi Valleys, and much of southern and central
California.

Mullinax

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php