Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 AM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022

Valid 12Z Sun Jun 19 2022 - 12Z Tue Jun 21 2022

...Father's Day weather headlined by Excessive Heat in the Northern Plains
& sultry conditions along the Gulf Coast, cooler in the Northeast & the
West; severe storms possible in the northern High Plains; Critical Fire
Weather Risk in Utah and northern Arizona...

...Early season monsoonal moisture to lead to isolated chances for flash
flooding across parts of the Southwest; heavy rain possible in the
northern Rockies on Monday...

...Heat dome in the Heartland to advance east across the Mississippi
Valley and Mid-South the first half of the week with dangerous heat
indices expected...

Father's Day features stifling heat in the North-Central U.S. where
Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories have been issued for much of
the Northern Plains, western Iowa, and most of Minnesota. Heat indices
there are forecast to reach as high as 105 degrees this afternoon. Some
record warm min and max temperatures could be broken as well. Farther
south, the prolonged stretch of hazy, hot, and humid conditions along the
Gulf Coast looks to continue today with daytime highs anywhere from the
mid 90s to 100 degrees. In contrast, a very cool morning is on tap in the
Northeast and in parts of California and Nevada. Some daily record low
minimum temps may be broken in these areas with lows dipping into the 50s
and even the 40s in spots! Unseasonably cooler temperatures will be common
throughout the western third of the U.S. and from the Ohio Valley to the
Northeast. High temperatures will struggle to get out of the 40s in
northern Maine, thus challenging some daily record cool max temp records
for the date. Regarding regions where dads may want to keep the umbrella
handy or have alternate plans at the ready for rained-out outdoor
activities, the northern High Plains have a Slight Risk for severe storms
according to the Storm Prediction Center. Early season monsoonal shower
and thunderstorms activity is expected once again in the Four Corners
region, while an approaching cold front helps to ignite scattered
thunderstorms across Florida. Marginal Risks for Excessive Rainfall have
been issued in these areas due to the possibility of these storms causing
areas of flash flooding. Lastly, southern Utah and northern Arizona will
contend with one more day of Critical Fire Weather conditions today, but
fire weather conditions begin to improve by Monday. 

As the work-week kicks off, the early season monsoonal shower and
thunderstorm activity looks to continue in the Southwest with southeast
Arizona and much of New Mexico expected to be the wettest. A Marginal Risk
for Excessive Rainfall remains in place across central New Mexico with the
best odds of flash flooding occurring near burn scars. Farther north, the
anomalous upper trough slowly moving east will tap into rich atmospheric
moisture and produce locally heavy rainfall. The Excessive Rainfall
Outlook for Monday now includes a Slight Risk for western Montana due to
the heightened potential for heavy rainfall rates. In the Northern Plains
and Upper Midwest, a passing frontal boundary will spawn showers and
storms across these regions with some storms potentially becoming severe.
In the Great Lakes, a warm front lifting through the region will spark
showers and storms Monday morning and linger into the afternoon hours.
Lastly, a front positioned over Florida will be responsible for triggering
scattered showers and storms over the southern half of the state Monday
afternoon and evening.

Temperature-wise, the heat dome that has been positioned over the Nation's
Heartland inches east towards the Great Lakes and Mid-South by late Monday
into Tuesday. This will result in widespread 90s from the Plains to the
Great Lakes and on south to the Gulf Coast. Stifling heat only continues
to build in by mid-week with numerous 90s and even some low 100s in the
Lower Mississippi Valley and into the Southeast. This also brings more
typical summer warmth to the Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday, but lingering
abnormally cool conditions will remain entrenched over New England.


Mullinax

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php