Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Valid 00Z Tue Jun 21 2022 - 00Z Thu Jun 23 2022

...Severe thunderstorms expected across the northern Plains and Upper
Mississippi Valley tonight through early Tuesday...

...Monsoonal moisture will support widespread showers and thunderstorms
across parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies, posing the risk for
flash flooding...

...The extensive dome of heat and humidity across the Plains and Midwest
will gradually shift off to the east by the middle of the week to include
the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Mid-South...

An upper-level trough over the Great Basin and northern Rockies will
produce some additional areas of heavy rain and cool temperatures through
tonight for the northern High Plains, but this energy will advance off to
east overnight and arrive across the northern Plains by early Tuesday.
This will drive multiple waves of low pressure along a slow-moving cold
front edging across the central and northern Plains which will arrive
across the Midwest on Tuesday. The airmass along and ahead of this front
is very moist, hot, and unstable which will set the stage for broken areas
of heavy showers and thunderstorms to develop and expand across much of
the northern Plains and the Upper Mississippi Valley region this evening
and overnight as this upstream energy and associated front crosses the
region. There is the expectation of seeing at least a regional outbreak of
severe weather as the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted an Enhanced
Risk of severe thunderstorms for a large area of South Dakota, southeast
North Dakota and through west-central to northwest Minnesota going through
the overnight hours. Locally heavy rains will also be expected with some
of the more organized and stronger clusters of thunderstorms which may
result in at least some localized runoff problems.

On Tuesday, as the aforementioned front settles southeast across the
Plains and Midwest, there will finally be a break in the heat and
humidity, and temperatures across many areas will cool back down to normal
or be below normal for a change going into the middle of the week in
contrast to the most recent surge of hot weather and record-setting heat.
Much of the hot weather early this week will be displaced farther off to
the east on Tuesday and Wednesday, and should overspread a large area of
the Great Lakes region and extend south across the Ohio Valley and the
Mid-South where temperatures will locally be in the mid to upper 90s with
a couple of locations possibly reaching the century mark. Meanwhile, areas
of the Mid-Atlantic and especially the Northeast will remain on the cool
side as an upper-level trough and associated low pressure lingers offshore
of New England and across adjacent areas of southeast Canada.

For the Southwest, an influx of monsoonal moisture will be well entrenched
across areas of especially eastern Arizona, much of New Mexico, and
southern Colorado through Wednesday. This will set the stage for numerous
showers and thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall totals.
Locally an additional 2 to 3 inches of rain will be possible through
tonight, and again for Tuesday into Wednesday, with the heaviest rains
over the next couple of days likely to be over New Mexico. Areas of flash
flooding will be possible, and the Weather Prediction Center has depicted
a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across much of New Mexico over the
next couple of days given the heavy rainfall potential. The more sensitive
and vulnerable locations to enhanced runoff concerns will include the area
burn scars, and also some of the normally dry washes that are capable of
rapidly being inundated by heavy rainfall.


Orrison

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php