Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
413 AM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022

Valid 12Z Wed Jun 22 2022 - 12Z Fri Jun 24 2022

...Monsoonal moisture will continue to support widespread showers and
thunderstorms across parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies over the
next couple days, with additional concerns for flash flooding...

...Flash flood and severe weather threat for the Ohio Valley,
Mid-Atlantic, and Interior Northeast Wednesday...

...Heat concerns wane for the Midwest but continue for the South while
temperatures also climb for the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
Thursday...

Monsoonal moisture continues to stream northward from Mexico into areas of
the Southwest and the southern Rockies given deep layer southerly flow in
between an upper-level trough near California and a strong ridge of high
pressure focused over the lower Mississippi Valley. This moisture has been
well entrenched over the last several days and should remain pooled over
the region going into the latter part of the week. There is a Slight Risk
of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) for portions of Southwest Colorado and
northwestern New Mexico Wednesday for areal average rain totals of 0.5 to
1", locally higher. A Marginal Risk is in place for Thursday across the
region for additional rain totals of around 0.25". Increasingly moist soil
conditions and increasing streamflows across these areas from the recent
rainfall, as well as any heavy rainfall over burn scars, will favor areas
of flash flooding.

Meanwhile, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected along a cold
front moving eastward across the Ohio Valley and a stationary front draped
southward through the Interior Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic on
Wednesday. There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall oriented along the
stationary front from the Southern Tier of New York southward through
central Pennsylvania, central Maryland, and northern Virginia. Training
convection along the front is forecast to produce rain totals of 1-2",
locally higher, which may lead to scattered instances of flash flooding.
The Storm Prediction Center has also outlined a Slight Risk of severe
weather (level 2/5) for the same region as well as the Upper Ohio Valley.
Moderate to strong instability combined with increasing shear will allow
for some of these storms to organize and produce instances of severe wind
gusts. There is also a Slight Risk of severe weather for the Central
Plains Thursday as moisture returns northward on the western edge of the
cold front. Instances of severe hail and wind gusts as well as a few
tornadoes are possible.

Regarding the most recent heatwave across the Midwest, the arrival and
passage of the aforementioned cold front will result in a cooling trend
across the area, with highs in the lower 90s Wednesday dropping into the
80s Thursday. Hot weather will continue from the Southern Plains to the
Southeast with forecast high temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s.
This will likely be hot enough to break some daily temperatures records
across the region. High temperatures will also begin to soar across the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Thursday with low to mid-90s expected.
Cooler temperatures will be noted over the Northeast and portions of the
Mid-Atlantic where proximity of an upper low off the East Coast and a
surface low pressure center near the coastal Mid-Atlantic region will
favor cooler onshore flow. Forecast highs remain in the 70s both Wednesday
and Thursday. Similar, much cooler than average high temperatures will
also continue across the Southwest and the southern Rockies Wednesday
where clouds and rain from the active monsoonal pattern will be in place.
Temperatures begin to warm closer to average Thursday with highs in the
80s.

Hot conditions will continue for northern California and adjacent areas of
the northern Great Basin. Some temperatures in the Sacramento Valley may
reach the century mark. Dry weather is expected overall along the West
Coast and into the Great Basin. However, a few dry, high-based
thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central and southern
California Wednesday and the southern Great Basin Wednesday into Thursday
given closer proximity to some of the monsoonal moisture to the southeast.
Some wildfire concerns will exist from lightning strikes associated with
these generally dry thunderstorms.

Putnam/Orrison

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php