Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
344 AM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022

Valid 12Z Thu Jun 23 2022 - 12Z Sat Jun 25 2022

...Monsoonal moisture to support widespread showers and thunderstorms
across parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies; occasional bouts of
showers and thunderstorms in the Southeast each day; wet Thursday in parts
of the Northeast to turn drier by Friday...

...Strong-to-severe storms capable of causing flash flooding to journey
from the Northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest through week's end...

...Stifling heat persists across the South while temperatures also climb
for much of the Plains and Upper Midwest late week...

A combination of frontal systems and ongoing monsoonal flow in the
Southwest will be the focuses for active weather across portions of the
Lower 48 through the remainder of the work-week. Starting in the
Southwest, monsoonal flow and anomalous moisture content will remain in
place over the Southwest, leading to daily rounds of afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could contain Excessive Rainfall
rates and may cause localized flash flooding. As a result, Marginals Risks
remain in place for portions of the Four Corners region through Friday. In
the Southeast, an approaching cold front will set off showers and
thunderstorms in parts of the Carolinas later today while hit-or-miss
showers and t-storms dot central and northern Florida today. The greatest
areal coverage for showers and t-storms in the Southeast comes on Friday
when the cold front reaches southern Georgia. Both the Storm Prediction
Center and Weather Prediction Center have Marginal Risks for severe
weather and Excessive Rainfall from southern Georgia to central Florida on
Friday. Farther north, a nearly stagnant frontal boundary is forecast to
keep areas of showers and a few thunderstorms oriented north-to-south from
the Mid-Atlantic to as far north as northern New England. This front is
expected to dissipate sometime Friday, giving way to a drier end to the
week for residents in the Northeast.

The most active storm track is set to occur from the northern Rockies to
the Upper Midwest late Thursday and into Friday. An occluded low and its
associated cold front traversing the Intermountain West will spark showers
and t-storms from the Great Basin to the northern Rockies and High Plains.
Some storms could be severe in some cases, including in parts of the Upper
Midwest downwind of a developing warm front over the northern and central
Plains. The SPC has issued a Slight Risk for southern Nebraska and
northern Kansas while a pair of Marginal Risks for Excessive Rainfall
incorporate some of the central Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. By
Friday, the low pressure system over far southern Canada is forecast to
strengthen ahead of an upper level disturbance ejecting out of the
northern Rockies. This makes Friday the busier day in terms of potential
hazardous severe weather and increased potential for flash flooding.
Slight Risks, for both severe weather and Excessive Rainfall, have been
posted for the Red River Valley of the North and portions of eastern South
Dakota and northwest Minnesota. Strong-to-severe storms could contain
damaging wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes, as well heavy downpours
that may cause areas of flash flooding

Temperature-wise, sizzling heat will be a mainstay along the Gulf Coast
where daytime highs make a run at the century mark and heat indices will
top out around 110 degrees in spots. Some daily records, both high
minimums and maximums, are likely to be broken. To account for these
brutally hot conditions, Heat Advisories have been issued from eastern
Texas to the Southeast coast. Abnormally hot temperatures are also on the
docket in the North-Central U.S. where highs in the low-mid 90s across the
Dakotas and Upper Mississippi Valley look to range between 10 and 20
degrees above normal through Friday. High temps will also rebound into the
triple digits by Friday in the central and southern High Plains. Much of
California's Great Valley and coastal range can anticipate hotter than
normal conditions to close out the work-week, while an unusually cool
Thursday in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic gives way to more typical late
June temperatures on Friday.

Mullinax

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php