Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
408 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022

Valid 00Z Fri Jun 24 2022 - 00Z Sun Jun 26 2022

...Flash flooding and severe weather expected for the north-central U.S.
through Saturday...

...Monsoonal moisture continues to bring showers and storms to the
Southwest while scattered thunderstorms are also possible in the Southeast
near meandering fronts...

...Stifling heat persists across the South while temperatures also climb
for much of the Plains and Upper Midwest late week...

A quick-moving upper-level trough will push a cold front across the
northwestern to north-central U.S. over the next couple of days, providing
energy to form rain and thunderstorms pushing across the northern/central
Plains and into the Upper Midwest. A couple of areas there are outlooked
by the Storm Prediction Center for Slight Risks of severe weather through
tonight, with large hail, high winds, and tornadoes all possible threats.
Heavy rain possibly causing localized areas of flash flooding are possible
there through tonight as well, but the bigger threat for flash flooding is
likely to be tomorrow, when there is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall
in place for parts of North Dakota and Minnesota. A larger Slight Risk of
severe weather is also outlined by SPC for tomorrow across much of the
northern half of the Plains and into the Mississippi Valley.

A monsoon pattern continues to be in place over the Four Corners region,
with moist southerly flow from the Pacific coming in west of an
upper-level high in the Southern Plains. Thus rounds showers and
thunderstorms are expected to form generally in the afternoons and
evenings for the next couple of days. Marginal Risks of excessive rainfall
are forecast, with heavy rain possibly causing flash flooding over areas
that have seen multiple rounds of storms as well as over burn scars. Even
more moisture and support for heavy rainfall looks to come in by Saturday
and push eastward a bit along and ahead of a front, so WPC is showing a
Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from northeastern New Mexico into
adjacent areas of the central/southern High Plains at that time.
Additionally, a couple of fronts are forecast to meander across parts of
Florida and the Gulf Coast states through the end of the week, helping to
focus moisture and sparking scattered showers and thunderstorms from the
Deep South into Florida and possibly up to the Southern Appalachians.

Temperature-wise, heat will continue to persist across the South, with
highs over 100 degrees and heat indices potentially higher stretching from
the southern/central Plains to Southeast. Daily records for high minimum
and maximum temperatures could again be set, and Heat Advisories are in
effect. Hot temperatures in the 90s even for the north-central U.S. are
forecast to cool to below normal by Saturday behind the cold front, while
warmer than average temperatures get pushed into the east-central U.S.
Meanwhile the West Coast will gradually warm to above normal by the
weekend.

Tate

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php