Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
333 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Valid 12Z Fri Jun 24 2022 - 12Z Sun Jun 26 2022

...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible for parts of the
northern Plains and Upper Midwest today...

...Monsoonal moisture and an approaching cold front to create the threat
of heavy rain and instances of flash flooding over portions of the
Southwest and southern Rockies through this weekend...

...Stifling heat persists across the South while temperatures also climb
for much of the Pacific Northwest...

A potent upper-level trough over the northern Rockies and sliding cold
front will set the stage for numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms
across the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley today into early
Saturday. An anomalously warm and moist airmass ahead of the approaching
frontal boundary will lead to conditions favorable for thunderstorms to
turn severe. The Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced Risk
(level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms for eastern North Dakota, northeastern
South Dakota, and northwestern Minnesota. Damaging wind gusts, very large
hail, and a couple of tornadoes are possible, with the potential for
severe thunderstorms extending southward to Nebraska and western Iowa as
well. Along with the severe potential, heavy rain may lead to flash
flooding from eastern North Dakota to northern Minnesota. A Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall has been issued to highlight the concern.

Meanwhile, monsoonal moisture will remain in place throughout the
Southwest and into the southern/central Rockies through this weekend. This
will lead to continuing chances for scattered thunderstorms and isolated
chances for flash flooding. By Saturday, an approaching cold front will
help focus more organized convection from northern New Mexico to southwest
Kansas. These thunderstorms may be slow-moving and produce heavy rainfall
amounts, which could be particularly dangerous near burn scars. A Slight
Risk of excessive rainfall has been issued for these regions on both
Saturday and Sunday. Elsewhere, chances for scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue across the eastern Gulf Coast, Southeast, and
Florida through this weekend near a stationary front. A few storms will be
capable of containing intense rainfall rates within the soupy tropical
airmass in place.

Dangerous heat will remain a concern over much of the South through this
weekend. High temperatures underneath a stagnant upper-level ridge will
soar into the upper-90s and low 100s from the southern Plains to the
eastern Gulf Coast. Heat Advisories have been issued from central Texas to
the western Florida Peninsula as heat indices potentially approach 115
degrees today. Excessive Heat Warnings are posted for parts of the
Louisiana and southern Mississippi as well, including New Orleans.
Slightly cooler air will enter parts of the Southeast and Florida on
Saturday as easterly winds off of the western Atlantic offer some relief.
However, sweltering heat is forecast to continue across the Southern
Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley while potentially threatening a few
daily high temperature records. Farther north, above average temperatures
with highs into the upper-90s will reach into the mid-Mississippi Valley
on Saturday ahead of the progressing cold front, with low 90s making it
into the northern Appalachians on Sunday. For the Pacific Northwest,
summer is finally making an appearance but could bring with it dangerous
heat. Highs are forecast to climb each day through Sunday and reach into
the 90s across much of the region, with 100s farther south into the
central valley region of California. Heat Advisories have been issued
along eastern portions of Washington and Oregon for Saturday and Sunday.

Snell

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php