Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
321 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022

Valid 12Z Sat Jun 25 2022 - 12Z Mon Jun 27 2022

...Monsoonal moisture and an approaching cold front to create the threat
of heavy rain and instances of flash flooding over portions of the
Southwest, southern Rockies, and central/southern High Plains...

...Stifling heat forecast across the southern Plains and lower/middle
Mississippi Valley today, while much above average temperatures begin to
build across the Pacific Northwest...


A potent cold front trekking across the central and eastern U.S. will be
the focus for much of the impactful weather through the beginning of next
week. Combined with monsoonal moisture located across the Southwest,
numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
and evening from northern New Mexico to the Oklahoma Panhandle and
immediate vicinity. Heavy rainfall may lead to scattered flash floods,
particularly in geographically prone regions and near burn scars.
Downpours are once again possible on Sunday as the cold front slowly oozes
southward through the southern Rockies, with widespread rainfall totals by
Monday forecast to exceed 1 inch across central/northern New Mexico and
southern Colorado. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall has
been issued for both today and Sunday across this region to further
highlight the flash flood threat. Showers are expected to linger into
Monday throughout Arizona and New Mexico, but should become more scattered
in nature to start the workweek. Along the same cold front, isolated
severe thunderstorms are possible from the Midwest to the central Plains
today and Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Sunday. Large hail and damaging
wind gusts are the greatest risks as storms develop within a warm and
moist airmass, with an isolated risk of flash flooding not out of the
question as well. Scattered pop up thunderstorms will also be found across
the Southeast, Gulf Coast, and into the southern/central Appalachians
through the end of the weekend.

The upper-level pattern over the next few days will feature ridging
extending from the south-central U.S. to the Northeast, troughing over the
north-central U.S., and a building upper-level ridge along the West Coast.
As a result, surface high temperatures are forecast to soar to nearly 20
degrees above average for parts of the West, most notably the Pacific
Northwest, while sultry heat and humidity persists across the Deep South
and stretches ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Highs across Oregon
and Washington are likely to reach well into the 90s between today and
Monday, which has prompted Heat Advisories to be issued. High temperatures
in the low 100s are forecast across the central valley region of
California. For the southern Plains and lower/middle Mississippi Valley
today, the combination of heat and humidity will make it feel like it is
nearly 110 degrees. Thus, Heat Advisories have been issued from Oklahoma
and north-central Texas to the central Gulf Coast. Highs will also surge
above average for late-June and into the 90s from the Ohio Valley to
northern New England through Sunday. Conversely, well below average
temperatures will be located across the central Plains and Rockies
underneath thick cloud cover and behind the previously mentioned cold
front.

Snell

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php