Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
222 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022

Valid 00Z Sun Jun 26 2022 - 00Z Tue Jun 28 2022

...Monsoonal moisture and an approaching cold front to create the threat
of heavy rain and instances of flash flooding over portions of the
Southwest, southern Rockies, and central/southern High Plains...

...Isolated areas of severe weather are possible from the central Plains
and Midwest through this evening, and stretching to the Ohio Valley and
lower Great Lakes on Sunday...

...High heat and humidity to persist across the southern Plains and the
Gulf Coast states through Sunday, with heat building along the West Coast
and spreading across the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin through early
next week...

A strong cold front advancing across the central and eastern U.S. will
again be the focus for much of the impactful weather heading into the
early part of next week. This front combined with a persistent pool of
monsoonal moisture across much of the Southwest will favor numerous
showers and thunderstorms through this evening and into the overnight
hours with an emphasis on northern New Mexico, southern Colorado, and
eastward through the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. Heavy rainfall is
expected locally, and some areas of flash flooding will be possible,
particularly in geographically prone regions and near burn scars.
Additional heavy rain is forecast for Sunday and Monday across especially
areas of the southern Rockies, as the moisture continues to focus over the
region and lifts along and north of the aforementioned front into the
higher terrain.

Rainfall totals across portions of northern New Mexico and far southern
Colorado through Monday are forecast to be as much as 2 to 3 inches with
isolated heavier amounts. The heavier totals are likely to be focused over
the Sangre De Cristo mountains where there are several burn scar areas. A
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall has been issued through
Sunday and Monday morning across this region to address the excessive
rainfall threat. Along the same cold front, isolated severe thunderstorms
are possible from the Midwest to the central Plains today and for the
Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Sunday. In fact, a Slight Risk (level
2/5) of severe weather is depicted through tonight across northeast
Missouri, southeast Iowa, and central Illinois. Some large hail and
damaging winds will be possible with these thunderstorms as the develop in
response to the very warm and moist airmass. An isolated risk of flash
flooding will be possible as well. Scattered thunderstorms are also
expected over the next couple of days across the Southeast, Gulf Coast,
and into the southern/central Appalachians through the end of the weekend.

The upper-level pattern over the next couple of days will feature ridging
extending from the south-central U.S. to the Mid-Atlantic states, and
troughing over the north-central U.S. and gradually the Great Lakes
region. An extensive ridge of high pressure will meanwhile will be
building along the West Coast and extending into the Great Basin and
Southwest. Surface high temperatures are forecast to soar to nearly 20
degrees above average for parts of the West, most notably the Pacific
Northwest, while sultry heat and humidity persists across the Gulf Coast
states. Highs across Oregon and Washington are likely to reach well into
the 90s between today and Monday, which has prompted Heat Advisories to be
issued. High temperatures in the low 100s are forecast across the central
valley region of California. For the southern Plains and lower/middle
Mississippi Valley, the combination of heat and humidity will make it feel
like it is nearly 110 degrees locally. Heat advisories are in effect for
these areas as well, and include areas of southwest Missouri, eastern
Oklahoma, and north-central Texas over to the central Gulf Coast. Highs
will also surge above average for late-June and into the 90s from the Ohio
Valley to northern New England through Sunday. Conversely, well below
average temperatures will be focused locally across the central Plains and
Rockies underneath thick cloud cover and rain behind the previously
mentioned cold front. In fact, some areas of southeast Colorado and
northeast New Mexico are expected to have high temperatures as much as 20
to 30 degrees below average on Sunday.

Snell/Orrison

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php