Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
325 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022

Valid 12Z Tue Jun 28 2022 - 12Z Thu Jun 30 2022

...Locally heavy rain possible across the Southeast, Gulf Coast, and
Southwest over the next few days...

...Isolated severe thunderstorms possible across parts of Montana and the
Upper Midwest today and into the northern Plains on Wednesday...

...Well above average temperatures forecast across the northern/central
Plains on Wednesday while increasing heat and humidity gradually spreads
eastward for the second half of the week...


A fairly typical summer pattern has set up across the Nation for the final
few days of June, with various chances for scattered thunderstorms and
associated hazards. An upper-level ridge and lingering stationary boundary
draped across the southern U.S. will lead to conditions ripe for scattered
thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon hours along the Gulf Coast
and Southeast. High atmospheric moisture content and light winds aloft are
anticipated to create an environment most likely to produce disorganized
thunderstorms capable of containing intense rainfall rates and frequent
lightning. Storms that can remain stationary for a longer duration will
have greater chances of producing flash floods. Additionally, urban
regions are also most at risk for ponding water over mostly impervious
surfaces. Meanwhile, a forming weak area of low pressure in the western
Gulf of Mexico (highlighted by the National Hurricane Center as having a
30 percent chance of cyclone formation in 5 days) may also create a focus
for convection along the Texas Gulf Coast. The other region under the
threat of additional heavy rainfall and flash flooding is located across
the Southwest. Monsoonal moisture in place may help spark additional
showers and thunderstorms today across southern Arizona and New Mexico. By
Wednesday and Thursday, an approaching system over the Northwest will help
funnel moisture into Arizona and southern Utah before spreading further
northeast into western Colorado on Thursday. Even though much of this
region could use the rainfall, downpours in these areas can quickly turn
dangerous and lead to flash floods.

Farther north, a few progressive systems trekking across the northern tier
will have the potential to spark isolated-to-scattered severe weather
today and Wednesday. Starting in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, a
traversing cold front will be responsible for developing thunderstorms
capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail this afternoon and
evening. SPC has highlighted an area over northern Wisconsin as having a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of severe weather. Elsewhere, a system entering
the Northwest this morning is expected to enter the northern Rockies and
fuel thunderstorm development into parts of the northern High Plains.
Damaging wind gusts are the greatest concern, which has prompted SPC to
issue a Slight Risk of severe weather across parts of central Montana.
This same system is forecast to enter the northern Plains on Wednesday,
leading to an isolated threat of severe weather from northwest Nebraska to
northern Minnesota.

Through the last day of June, most of the country is forecast to
experience temperatures near average for this time of year. The biggest
exceptions will be cooler weather located across the East today behind a
cold front and over the southern High Plains under mostly overcast skies,
with above average temperatures spreading into the central U.S. by
Wednesday. Highs across parts of South Dakota and Nebraska may reach the
century mark on Wednesday before a cold front cools things off by the end
of the week. This area of heat will moderate slightly while shifting into
the Midwest by Thursday. Overall, high temperatures in the upper 80s and
low-to-mid 90s are forecast to be widespread across the Nation for the
middle of the week.


Snell

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php