Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022

Valid 00Z Wed Jun 29 2022 - 00Z Fri Jul 01 2022

...Showers and thunderstorms linger near a front across the Gulf Coast
states to the Southeast with locally heavy rain possible...

...Isolated severe thunderstorms possible through tonight across parts of
Montana and the Upper Midwest...

...Heat begins to build across the northern Plains on Wednesday before
spreading east across the northern tier states on Thursday...


A summer weather pattern has set up across the Nation for the final few
days of June. An upper-level ridge and lingering stationary boundary
draped across the southern U.S. will continue to trigger additional
scattered thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast and into the Southeast. High
atmospheric moisture content and light winds aloft are anticipated to
create an environment favorable for slow-moving thunderstorms with heavy
downpours and frequent lightning.  Storms that can remain stationary for a
longer duration will have greater chances of producing flash floods. 
Additionally, urban regions are also most at risk for ponding water over
mostly impervious surfaces.  Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center is
monitoring an area of low pressure located in the western Gulf of Mexico
for the potential of tropical cyclone formation.  Tropical downpours
associated with this system is forecast to edge westward toward the Texas
coastal areas, and could result in heavy rainfall moving onshore by
Thursday.  The other region under the threat of locally heavy rainfall and
flash flooding is located across the Southwest.  Monsoonal moisture in
place is forecast to trigger additional showers and thunderstorms across
the Four-Corners region into tonight. By Wednesday and into Thursday, an
approaching system moving through the Northwest will help funnel moisture
northeastward into Colorado and then southern Wyoming on Thursday.  Even
though much of this region could use the rainfall, downpours in these
areas can quickly turn dangerous and lead to flash floods.

Farther north, a cold front dipping into the northern tier states will
have the potential to spark isolated-to-scattered severe weather through
tonight. The areas most susceptible to severe storms are across central
Montana as well as northern Wisconsin.

Through the last day of June, most of the country is forecast to
experience temperatures near average for this time of year. The biggest
exceptions will be cooler weather located across the East today behind a
cold front and over the southern High Plains under mostly overcast skies,
with above average temperatures spreading into the central U.S. by
Wednesday. Highs across parts of South Dakota and Nebraska may reach the
century mark on Wednesday before a cold front cools things off by the end
of the week. This area of heat will moderate slightly while shifting into
the Midwest by Thursday. Overall, high temperatures in the upper 80s and
low-to-mid 90s are forecast to be widespread across the Nation for the
middle of the week.


Kong/Snell

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php