Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
322 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022

Valid 12Z Wed Jun 29 2022 - 12Z Fri Jul 01 2022

...Locally heavy rain and isolated flash flooding remains possible across
the Southeast, Gulf Coast, and Southwest...

...Severe thunderstorms to potentially impact the northern Plains today,
with well above average temperatures and critical fire weather extending
from the central High Plains to the middle Missouri Valley...


A typical summer weather pattern set up across the country is expected to
largely remain intact through the beginning of July. A broad upper-level
ridge and lingering stationary boundary draped across the southern U.S.
will continue to trigger additional scattered thunderstorms along the Gulf
Coast and into the Southeast. High atmospheric moisture content and light
winds aloft are anticipated to create an environment favorable for
slow-moving thunderstorms with downpours and frequent lightning, similar
to the last few days. Storms that can remain stationary for a longer
duration will have greater chances of producing flash floods.
Additionally, urban regions are also most at risk for ponding water over
mostly impervious surfaces.  Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center is
monitoring an area of low pressure located in the western Gulf of Mexico
for potential tropical cyclone formation. Regardless of development,
tropical downpours associated with this system are forecast to edge
westward toward the Texas coastal areas beginning this evening as more
widespread heavy rainfall potentially moves onshore by Thursday. The other
region under the threat of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding is
located across the Southwest. Monsoonal moisture in place is forecast to
trigger additional showers and thunderstorms across Arizona today. By
Thursday and Friday, an approaching system moving into the central Rockies
will help funnel moisture northeastward into Colorado and eventually the
central Plains. Even though much of this region could use the rainfall,
downpours in these areas can quickly turn dangerous and lead to flash
floods.

Farther north, a cold front swinging across the north-central U.S. will
have the potential to spark isolated-to-scattered severe weather through
tonight. The areas most susceptible to severe storms are across the
Dakotas and far northwestern Minnesota, where SPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of severe thunderstorms. Damaging wind gusts and large hail
are the most likely hazards, with a few tornadoes also possible. The
marginal severe threat shifts eastward along the cold front on Thursday
and into a region stretching from the central Plains to the Upper Great
Lakes.

Ahead of the aforementioned cold front and associated thunderstorm
activity, simmering heat is forecast across much of the central/northern
Plains this afternoon. Highs are expected to reach into the upper-90s and
triple digits from the central High Plains to South Dakota, which equates
to around 20 degrees above average. Critical Fire Weather is also
anticipated along with the brief and intense heat. Red Flag Warnings have
been issued for parts of northeast Colorado, northwest Kansas,
central/western Nebraska, and south-central South Dakota. Elsewhere,
building heat and humidity will gradually shift eastward and into the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic by Friday. Highs are likely to return to the low
90s for most locations.


Snell

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php