Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 342 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Valid 12Z Thu Jun 30 2022 - 12Z Sat Jul 02 2022 ...A weak area of low pressure approaching the middle Texas Coast today will bring the threat of tropical downpours and flash flooding through early Friday... ...Severe thunderstorms to potentially impact parts of the northern Great Lakes and upper Mississippi Valley today and Northeast on Saturday... ...Monsoonal moisture and an approaching cold front to spread chances of locally heavy rain from the Southwest to the central Plains over the next few days... A stagnant and broad upper-level ridge spanning much of the southern U.S. will set the stage for additional scattered slow-moving thunderstorms over the Gulf Coast States and Southeast through the beginning of the weekend. Within this region, a weak area of low pressure churning over the western Gulf of Mexico is expected to focus numerous showers and thunderstorms along coastal Texas and far southwest Louisiana. The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor this system, giving it a 40 percent chance for tropical cyclone formation. Regardless of development, tropical downpours are likely to enter portions of the middle/upper Texas Coast today before more widespread activity is forecast overnight into the first half of Friday. Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with locally higher amounts, combined with intense rainfall rates will have the potential to produce instances of flash flooding. Thus, a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall has been issued from the middle Texas Coast to southeast Louisiana for today and Friday. Elsewhere, disorganized thunderstorms within a warm and moist airmass across the Southeast will continue to lead to isolated chances for flash flooding. Urban regions with more impervious surfaces are most at risk to encounter flooding impacts associated with these pop-up storms. Farther north, an advancing cold front is forecast to reach the upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes today while spreading the threat of scattered severe thunderstorms. Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible from the U.P. of Michigan to northeast Iowa. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms for this region. As the cold front slides eastward, the isolated severe weather threat is expected to shift into the Lower Great Lakes/interior Northeast. Heavy rain is also possible along this same cold front, but farther west throughout the central Plains. Here, isolated rainfall totals may exceed 1 inch as the frontal boundary becomes quasi-stationary from Missouri to Kansas on Friday. The progressing cold front is forecast to reach the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic by Saturday, which will be accompanied with the threat of locally heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms. The greatest severe weather threat currently includes much of the I-95 corridor from Philadelphia to Boston, where SPC has hoisted a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms in order to highlight the threat of damaging wind gusts and hail. Anomalous atmospheric moisture will also stretch westward into the central/southern Rockies, eastern Great Basin, and Southwest over the next few days. Isolated flash floods are a concern for this region, specifically in more geographically prone areas and around recent burn scars. The most notable area of above average temperatures over the next few days is anticipated to stretch from the central Plains to the Great Lakes today and shift into the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Ohio and Middle Mississippi Valleys on Friday. For these locations, temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees above average will equate to highs reaching into the low-to-mid 90s with upper-90s and triple digits possible throughout the central/southern Plains. Otherwise, near average to below average temperatures are expected across much of the remainder of the Nation heading into the beginning of July. Snell Graphics are available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php