Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 PM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022

Valid 00Z Sun Jul 03 2022 - 00Z Tue Jul 05 2022

...Tropical Storm Colin to track from the Southeast/southern Mid-Atlantic
Coast today before moving offshore on Sunday...

...Wet weather, isolated Flash Flooding and Severe thunderstorms possible
across the Southeast quarter of the nation and from the Central to
Northern Plains into the Northern Rockies, Northwest and from portions of
the Southwest into the Southern Rockies...

...Areas extending from the West Coast inland through the Great Basin and
Northern Rockies will have cooler than average temperature  while the
Plains into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and Great Lakes will be warmer
than average temperatures...

...Critical fire weather conditions to persist across the Great Basin this
weekend...

Nature's fireworks are expected this Independence Day holiday weekend in
proximity to a frontal boundary stretching nearly from coast to coast. The
Storm Prediction Center has highlighted portions of the Northern/Central
Plains and the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England as having at least a
Slight Risk of severe weather into the start of the week. WPC also expects
some of these storms capable of producing moderate to heavy rainfall,
which elevates the threat for rapid runoff and local flash flooding
concerns. Tropical Storm Colin is slowly tracking across North Carolina
spreading heavy rains across the Southeast/southern Mid-Atlantic coastal
areas.

However, much of this expected precipitation over the next few days will
not be falling across areas of the west that have had extreme to
exceptional long term drought conditions. In contrast, the monsoonal
thunderstorm activity will persist keeping the parts of the Southwest wet.
The parched Great Basin will have Elevated/Critical fire conditions,
posing a threat for rapid spread of wildfires.

In response to a strong cold front developing across the western U.S.
today that will then advance into the Great Basin and Northern Rockies
Sunday into Monday much cooler temperatures will flood the region. The
daily maximum temperatures will average 10 or more degrees below seasonal
average from the West Coast today to the Northern Rockies by Independence
Day. Below average temperatures are also expected over the next two days
in areas of active showers and thunderstorms from the Southwest, Southern
Rockies and across much of the southeast quarter of the nation. A vast
portion of the Plains, Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Lower Great Lakes
will have warmer than average temperatures, but few if any record highs or
lows are expected through the holiday weekend across the Lower 48.

Campbell

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php