Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 AM EDT Fri Jul 08 2022

Valid 12Z Fri Jul 08 2022 - 12Z Sun Jul 10 2022

...Dangerous heat and humidity across parts of the South Plains to the
Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through Sunday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern Rockies to Northern Plains on Friday into Sunday morning and the
Ohio Valley on Friday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio
Valley to the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast on Friday into Sunday morning...

An upper-level high will allow temperatures to climb into the upper 90s
and 100s over the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley and
dew points in the upper 60s to mid-70s have prompted Excessive Heat
Warnings and Heat Advisories over the region through Sunday. In addition,
many locations will have record high low temperatures contributing to
areas not cooling off overnight, which will also contribute to the effects
of heat.

Meanwhile, upper-level energy and weak fronts will aid in destabilizing
the atmosphere over the Northern Rockies to Northern Plains. Therefore,
the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
Montana into North Dakota through Saturday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. There will also be an increased risk of
hail two inches or greater over parts of the region.

In addition, the thunderstorms, some will be severe, will develop over
parts of southeastern Illinois, southern Indiana, and Kentucky as a wave
of low pressure moves over the region. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio Valley through
Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

Furthermore, heavy rain will be associated with these thunderstorms across
parts of the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over the Ohio
Valley into Mid-Atlantic and a second area over the southern Mid-Atlantic
through Saturday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small
streams the most vulnerable.

The severe thunderstorm threat continues over parts of Montana into North
Dakota and parts of Minnesota on Saturday into Sunday morning. Therefore,
the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern Rockies to Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley through
Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

The excessive rainfall threat will move eastward to the Mid-Atlantic Coast
on Saturday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive
rainfall over the Mid-Atlantic Coast from Saturday into Sunday morning.
The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

Moreover, weak monsoonal moisture will trigger diurnal showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast and Southern Rockies into parts
of the Southern High Plains on Friday into Saturday. In addition, there is
an area of Elevated Risk of fire weather over parts of the Great Basin on
Friday into Saturday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php