Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Fri Jul 08 2022

Valid 00Z Sat Jul 09 2022 - 00Z Mon Jul 11 2022

...Dangerous heat to continue across portions of the southern Plains and
the Southwest through the weekend...

...Showers and storms producing locally heavy to excessive rainfall
possible from the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic late today into tomorrow
before shifting south into the Southeast over the weekend...

...Strong to severe storms possible over the northern Plains through
Saturday, shifting east into the Upper Midwest on Sunday...

Across the central and eastern U.S., the story remains much the same as it
has over the past few days with a slow-moving boundary extending from the
southern Plains to the southern Mid Atlantic.  South of the front,
oppressive heat and humidity remains in place, with heat advisories and
excessive heat warnings extending from the southern Plains to the
Southeast.  While above-normal to record-breaking temperatures are
forecast to continue through the weekend across portions of the southern
Plains, the front is expected to bring relief from the heat across the
Southeast as it slides farther south and east into the region this
weekend.  Along with cooler temperatures will be a good chance for showers
and storms and the potential for severe weather.  While showers and storms
are possible along much of the front, low pressure moving east along the
boundary will help to focus a greater threat for severe storms and heavy
to excessive rain as it moves across the lower Ohio Valley later today. 
Overnight the greater threat for heavy rain is expected to move east of
the Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic region. By late tomorrow, the
better chances for thunderstorms and heavy rain will sink farther south
with the front into the Southeast, where unsettled weather is likely to
continue through the remainder of the weekend.

In addition to the southern Plains, temperatures will soar to well above
normal across much of the northern and central Plains over the weekend. 
Heat advisories are now being posted for portions of the Dakotas, where
daytime temperatures will climb well into the 90s and reach triple digits
in some locations before a cold front sweeps across the region on Sunday.

Above-normal temperatures are forecast to prevail through the weekend
across much of the Southwest as well.  Excessive heat warnings are in
effect across portions of the southern California and western Arizona
deserts, where daytime temperatures are expected to top 110 each day in
some locations.

In addition to above-normal temperatures, windy conditions are expected to
contribute to elevated fire weather concerns across portions of the Great
Basin.  Red flag warnings are in currently in effect, or will be in effect
tomorrow, for portions of central to eastern Nevada and western Utah,
where conditions are likely to favor extreme fire behavior.

Strong to severe storms are expected later today into tonight across
Montana, with another round of storms expected tomorrow across Montana and
North Dakota.  These storms that develop may have the potential for
produce large hail and damaging winds.  By Sunday with the front sweeping
east, the focus for severe weather is expected to shift into the eastern
Dakotas and Minnesota.

Pereira

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php