Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 AM EDT Sat Jul 09 2022

Valid 12Z Sat Jul 09 2022 - 12Z Mon Jul 11 2022

...Dangerous heat and humidity across parts of the South Plains to the
Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through Monday...

...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic on Saturday and a Slight Risk over parts of the Southeast on
Sunday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern Rockies to Northern Plains on Saturday and over the Upper
Mississippi Valley on Sunday into Monday morning...

An upper-level high will allow temperatures to climb into the upper 90s
and 100s over the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley and
dew points in the upper 60s to mid-70s have prompted Excessive Heat
Warnings and Heat Advisories over the region through Monday. In addition,
many locations will have record high low temperatures contributing to
areas not cooling off overnight, which will also contribute to the effects
of heat.

Meanwhile, waves of low pressure and tropical moisture will aid in
producing showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Mid-Atlantic that
will create areas of heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate
Risk of excessive rainfall with these showers and thunderstorms over the
Mid-Atlantic through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
numerous areas of flash flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood,
potentially affecting larger rivers.

The excessive rainfall threat will move southeastward to the Southeast
Coast on Sunday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive
rainfall over South Carolina and parts of North Carolina and Georgia from
Sunday into Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small
streams the most vulnerable.

In the meantime, upper-level energy and weak fronts will aid in
destabilizing the atmosphere over the Northern Rockies to Northern Plains.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over
parts of Montana into North Dakota and parts of Minnesota through Sunday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.
There will also be an increased risk of severe thunderstorm wind gusts 65
knots or greater and hail two inches or greater over parts of the region.

Furthermore, the severe thunderstorm threat moves eastward over parts of
Minnesota and North/South Dakota on Sunday into Monday morning. Therefore,
the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Upper Mississippi Valley/Northern Plains from Sunday into Monday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Moreover, weak monsoonal moisture will trigger diurnal showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Southwest and Southern Rockies into parts
of the Central Rockies on Saturday into Sunday. In addition, there is an
area of Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Great Basin on
Saturday, prompting Red Flag Warnings over the area. The fire weather
threat decreases to an Elevated Risk of fire weather over parts of the
Northern Rockies on Sunday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php