Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Sun Jul 10 2022

Valid 00Z Mon Jul 11 2022 - 00Z Wed Jul 13 2022

...Oppressive to dangerous heat and humidity continues across the southern
Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley as some relief from the heat
moves into the central High Plains...

...Heat increases across the Desert South and interior valleys of
California...

...Threat of heavy rain moving southward into the Southeast next couple of
days as another heavy rain threat emerges near the central Gulf Coast...

...Severe thunderstorms threat expected to track across the northern tier
states for the next couple of days...

An upper-level high anchored over the southern Plains will continue to
sustain the ongoing heat wave across the region for the next couple of
days.  Farther east, the effect of high humidity will make the heat more
oppressive over the lower Mississippi Valley even though the temperatures
there are not expected to climb as high.  Heat indices are forecast to
once again peak above 110 degrees at many places during the afternoon on
Monday.  Slightly cooler air behind a cold front is forecast to work its
way down the central Plains during the next couple of days, bringing in
some welcome relief there through Tuesday.  However, the interior Desert
Southwest and interior valleys of California will see the heat increasing
in intensity, especially Monday afternoon, with actually temperatures
likely exceeding 115 degrees at the hottest locations in the desert.

Meanwhile, waves of low pressure forming along a cold front will gradually
shift the threat of heavy rain southward int the Southeast for tonight and
into early Monday.  By later on Monday into Tuesday, tropical moisture
gathering in the northern Gulf of Mexico will begin to interact with the
nearly stationary front where the threat of heavy rain is forecast to
increase near the central Gulf Coast by Tuesday.

In the meantime, upper-level energy and a weak front will track across the
northern tier states for the next couple of days. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible near and ahead of the front. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there
will be a second area of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern
High Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of Montana, Wyoming, and South Dakota through
Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal
threat of tornadoes.

Farther south, weak monsoonal moisture will trigger diurnal showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Southwest and Southern Rockies into parts
of the Central Rockies on Sunday into Monday morning. However, on Monday,
there is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall with the monsoonal
thunderstorms over parts of south-central Colorado and northeast New
Mexico into Tuesday morning. Furthermore, there is an area of Elevated
Risk of fire weather over parts of Idaho and Wyoming on Sunday and a
second area over parts of western Kansas.


Kong/Ziegenfelder


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php