Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
338 AM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022

Valid 12Z Mon Jul 11 2022 - 12Z Wed Jul 13 2022

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southeast and the Central/Southern Rockies through Tuesday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Western Ohio Valley/Great Lakes on Monday and parts of the
Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday...

...Dangerous heat and humidity across parts of the South Plains to the
Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday...

An old front and upper-level energy will aid in producing showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast into the Central Gulf Coast on
Monday, with heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall with these showers and thunderstorms over the Southeast
into the Central Gulf Coast through Tuesday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable. On Tuesday, the
showers and thunderstorms will continue over the Southeast/Central Gulf
Coast.

In addition, weak monsoonal moisture will trigger diurnal showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Southwest and Southern Rockies into parts
of the Central Rockies on Monday into Tuesday morning. However, on Monday,
there is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall with the monsoonal
thunderstorms over parts of south-central Colorado and northeast New
Mexico into Tuesday morning. On Tuesday, the monsoonal thunderstorms will
continue over the Southwest and the Central/Southern Rockies.

Meanwhile, a front over the Midwest will become more robust, producing
severe thunderstorms on Monday. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight
Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Western Ohio Valley/Great
Lakes through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes.

The severe thunderstorm threat moves along with the front eastward to the
Northeast on Tuesday. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic
from Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes.

Furthermore, weakening upper-level high over the Southern Rockies/Southern
Plains will retreat westward to the Great Basin by Tuesday. However, high
temperatures to climb into the upper 90s and 100s over the Southern Plains
and parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and dew points in the upper 60s
to mid-70s have prompted Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over
the region through Monday. In addition, many locations will have record
high low temperatures contributing to areas not cooling off overnight,
which will also contribute to the effects of heat. In addition, there will
be other areas with Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts
of Northern California and extreme Southeastern California/Arizona.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php