Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
402 PM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022

Valid 00Z Tue Jul 12 2022 - 00Z Thu Jul 14 2022


...Dangerous heat to continue across portions of the southern Plains...

...Severe storms possible from the Midwest this evening to the Mid
Atlantic and Northeast tomorrow...

...Heavy rains will be possible along portions of the northern Gulf Coast
from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next several days...

Above-normal to record-breaking temperatures are forecast to continue
through midweek across portions of the southern Plains.  Heat Advisories
and Excessive Heat Warnings remain in effect across a large portion of
Texas, where heat indices are expected to soar well above 100 degrees once
again tomorrow. 

Further to the north, a cold front will bring relief from the heat to the
central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley.  In addition to cooler
temperatures, the front is expected to bring showers and storms as it
drops south through the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley and
pushes east from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley to the Northeast and Mid
Atlantic over the next couple of days.  Some of the these storms may
become strong to severe, producing damaging winds.  Through this evening
the greatest threat for severe storms is expected to center from central
Illinois to southern Lower Michigan.  Then tomorrow, the greater threat
will likely shift into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.

Meanwhile, moist easterly winds north of the front will likely support
showers and thunderstorms from the Colorado Rockies and High Plains into
the New Mexico.  Some of these storms may produce heavy rainfall amounts,
resulting in flash flooding, especially across vulnerable burn scar areas.

Across the Southeast and along the Gulf Coast, showers and thunderstorms
will continue to focus along a lingering frontal boundary.  There is an
increasing chance for heavy rains to develop along the central Gulf Coast
near a slow-moving area of low pressure.  The National Hurricane Center is
monitoring this system for potential tropical cyclone development.  While
the evolution of this system is far from certain, heavy rains will be
possible along portions of the northern Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the
Florida Panhandle over the next several days.

Following a day of well above-normal to record-breaking heat along the
Northwest Coast and California, a gradual cool down is expected along the
coast as the axis of well-above normal temperatures shifts east through
the Intermountain West and into the northern Rockies and High Plains on
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Pereira

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php