Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 AM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022

Valid 12Z Tue Jul 12 2022 - 12Z Thu Jul 14 2022

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Central/Southern Rockies on Tuesday and parts of the Central Gulf Coast on
Wednesday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northeast/Central Appalachians/Southeastern Ohio Valley through Wednesday
morning...

...Dangerous heat and humidity across parts of the South Plains to the
Lower Mississippi Valley will continue...

Monsoonal moisture will trigger diurnal showers and thunderstorms over
parts of the Southwest and Central/Southern Rockies through Wednesday.
However, on Tuesday, there is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall with the
monsoonal thunderstorms over parts of extreme southeastern Colorado and
northeast New Mexico into Wednesday morning. The monsoonal thunderstorms
will continue on Wednesday over the Southwest and the Central/Southern
Rockies.

Also, the excessive rainfall threat moves to the Gulf Coast on Wednesday.
Strong upper-level energy will produce showers and thunderstorms over the
Central Gulf Coast with some heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central Gulf Coast
Wednesday into Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and
small streams the most vulnerable.

Meanwhile, a front over the Lower Great Lakes will move eastward to the
Northeast Coast by Tuesday evening, producing severe thunderstorms.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians/Ohio
Valley through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes.

The severe thunderstorm threat decreases on Wednesday and moves to the
Southeast. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic/Southeast/Central
Gulf Coast from Wednesday into Thursday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning and severe thunderstorm
wind gusts.

Furthermore, upper-level high over the Four Corners Region begins to build
on Wednesday. High temperatures will climb into the upper 90s and 100s
over the Southern Plains and parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley. The
dew points over Texas will drop into the mid-50s to low 60s and in the
upper 60s to mid-70s along the Gulf Coast, which have prompted Excessive
Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over the region through Tuesday. In
addition, many locations will have record high low temperatures
contributing to areas not cooling off overnight, which will also
contribute to the effects of heat. In addition, there will be other areas
with Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of the Pacific
Northwest and Great Basin.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php