Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 AM EDT Wed Jul 13 2022

Valid 12Z Wed Jul 13 2022 - 12Z Fri Jul 15 2022

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central
Gulf Coast to The Southern Appalachians on Wednesday and expanding to the
southern Mid-Atlantic Coast on Thursday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern Rockies/High Plains through Thursday morning...

...Dangerous heat and humidity across parts of the South Plains to the
Lower Mississippi Valley will continue as well as parts of the Northern
High Plains and Great Basin...

Tropical moisture and upper-level energy will produce showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Central Gulf Coast and the Southeast,
producing areas of heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central Gulf Coast, Tennessee
Valley, Southern Appalachians, and Southeast through Thursday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

The excessive rainfall threat continues over the Central Gulf Coast to the
Southeast on Thursday. The showers and thunderstorms remain over parts of
the Central Gulf Coast and expand into the southern Mid-Atlantic with
heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Central Gulf Coast, Southeast, and southern
Mid-Atlantic on Thursday into Friday morning. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, and small streams the most vulnerable. In addition, on both days,
there is a risk of some thunderstorms becoming severe.

Meanwhile, a front over the Pacific Northwest/Northern California will
move eastward to the Northern Rockies/High Plains on Wednesday, producing
showers and thunderstorms with some severe. Therefore, the SPC has issued
a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern
Rockies/High Plains through Thursday morning. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and minimal risk of tornadoes. However, severe thunderstorm
wind gusts can reach 65 knots or greater.

On Thursday, the severe thunderstorm threat decreases slightly as the
front moves eastward into the Northern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern
Plains and Middle Missouri Valley on Thursday into Friday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and minimal risk of tornadoes.

Furthermore, monsoonal moisture will trigger diurnal showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Southwest/Great Basin and Central/Southern
Rockies on Wednesday and Thursday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over the region through Friday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash
flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.

Additionally, upper-level high over the Four Corners Region begins to
build Wednesday into Friday. High temperatures will climb into the upper
90s and 100s over the Southern Plains and parts of the Lower Mississippi
Valley. The dew points will be in the upper 60s to mid-70s along the over
parts of the area, which have prompted Heat Advisories over the region
through Wednesday evening. In addition, a few locations will have record
high low temperatures contributing to areas not cooling off overnight,
which will also contribute to the effects of heat. Moreover, there will be
Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of the Great Basin
through Thursday, while Heat Advisories over parts of the Northern High
Plains on Wednesday.



Ziegenfelder




Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php