Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
352 PM EDT Wed Jul 13 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Jul 14 2022 - 00Z Sat Jul 16 2022

...Continuing chances for heavy rain and scattered flash flooding forecast
across the central Gulf Coast and Southeast...

...Isolated instances of flash flooding possible over the Southwest and
parts of the central/southern Rockies associated with monsoon activity...

...Severe thunderstorms capable of containing damaging wind gusts are
possible across parts of the northern High Plains and Mid-South through
tonight...

...Dangerous heat and humidity persists across much of the central United
States and Great Basin through the end of the week...


Similar to recent days, heavy rain chances are set to continue across the
Southeast and central Gulf Coast States through at least Friday. A warm
and muggy airmass will support thunderstorm develop to the south of a
stationary boundary draped across the eastern half of the Nation from the
Mid-Atlantic to the Lower Mississippi Valley. High atmospheric water
content will allow for showers and thunderstorms to potentially contain
intense rainfall rates which could lead to scattered flash floods. A
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall is in effect through tonight
from southeast Louisiana to western North Carolina. The heavy rainfall
threat is expected to shift slightly southward on Thursday and again on
Friday, but remain located throughout much of the Southeast and eventually
consolidate over the central Gulf Coast by the end of the week.
Additionally, a few storms could contain damaging wind gusts from the
Mid-South to the Southeast. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of central
Mississippi and Alabama, with a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) over portions of
the Southeast on Thursday.

Monsoon activity is also expected to continue during the next few days and
lead to isolated flash flooding across the Southwest and central/southern
Rockies. A strong upper-level ridge centered over the Southern Rockies
will allow for moisture to rotate around the high and into the region.
Susceptible terrain near burn scars, slot canyons, etc. will be most at
risk for rapid runoff and flash floods throughout the Colorado River Basin.

Elsewhere, a shortwave trough swinging through the far northern Rockies
this evening will support developing thunderstorms throughout the northern
High Plains into tonight. A few storms could contain damaging wind gusts,
which has prompted a Slight Risk of severe weather to be issued over parts
of central Montana. Extending into Thursday and Friday, the marginal
severe weather threat shifts into the northern Plains and parts of the
Midwest as potential thunderstorm complexes ride to the north of a forming
warm front.

Summer heat will continue to remain a concern over much of the central
U.S. and interior portions of the West for the foreseeable future. As the
aforementioned upper-level ridge remains locked in over the Four Corners
region, highs into the upper 90s and triple digits will be found along the
periphery from the Desert Southwest to the northern Great Basin and much
of the Great Plains. The most anomalous heat is located across eastern
Montana this afternoon, where highs near 100 degrees equates to around 15
to 20 degrees above average. By Thursday, well above average heat shifts
into the central Plains as triple digit highs extend into western Kansas
and Nebraska. Only a few daily high temperature records are expected to be
threatened during this period, but that should not underscore the danger
this heat could pose if spending extended time outdoors.

Snell


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php