Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 AM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022

Valid 12Z Thu Jul 14 2022 - 12Z Sat Jul 16 2022

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central
Gulf Coast to the southern Mid-Atlantic Coast on Thursday and retreats to
the Central Gulf Coast on Friday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall with monsoonal
thunderstorms over parts of the Great Basin on Thursday expanding into the
Central Rockies on Friday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern Plains and adjacent parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley through
Friday morning...

...Dangerous heat and humidity across parts of the South Plains will
continue as well as parts of the Great Basin...

Moisture and upper-level energy will produce showers and thunderstorms
over parts of the Central Gulf Coast, Southeast, and southern
Mid-Atlantic, producing areas of heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued
a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central Gulf Coast,
Southeast, and southern Mid-Atlantic through Friday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

The excessive rainfall threat retreats to the Central Gulf Coast on
Friday. The showers and thunderstorms remain over parts of the Central
Gulf Coast, but the moisture becomes more limited while still producing
heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Central Gulf Coast on Friday into Saturday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most
vulnerable. In addition, on Thursdays, there is a risk of some
thunderstorms becoming severe.

Furthermore, monsoonal moisture will trigger diurnal showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Southwest/Great Basin and Central/Southern
Rockies on Thursday and Friday. Parts of this area will experience heavy
rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall
over parts of the Great Basin through Friday morning. On Friday, the
Slight Risk of excessive rainfall expands from parts of the Great Basin
into parts of the Central Rockies through Saturday morning. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

Meanwhile, a front over the Northern Rockies/High Plains will move into
the Northern Plains on Thursday, producing showers and thunderstorms with
some severe. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains and adjacent parts of the
Upper Mississippi Valley through Friday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and minimal risk of tornadoes.

On Friday, the severe thunderstorm threat decreases slightly as the front
moves eastward into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley on Friday into Saturday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and minimal risk of tornadoes.

Additionally, upper-level high over the Four Corners Region builds
Thursday into Friday. High temperatures will climb into the upper 90s and
100s over the Southern Plains. The dew points will be in the upper 60s to
mid-70s, which have prompted Heat Advisories over the region through
Thursday evening. In addition, a few locations will continue to have
record high low temperatures over the area near the Gulf, contributing to
areas not cooling off overnight, which will also contribute to the effects
of heat. Moreover, through Thursday, there will be Excessive Heat Warnings
and Red Flag Warnings over parts of the Great Basin.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php