Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
328 AM EDT Sat Jul 16 2022

Valid 12Z Sat Jul 16 2022 - 12Z Mon Jul 18 2022

...Dangerous heat to continue across portions of the central and western
United States...

...Instances of flash flooding possible throughout the Ohio Valley on
Sunday...

...Elevated fire weather conditions expected across portions of southern
Oregon and northern California through the weekend...

A strong upper high will continue to support above-normal to
record-breaking temperatures from the Southwest to the southern Plains
through the weekend.  Heat advisories are in effect across portions of
Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, and Arkansas, where daytime heat indices are
expected to soar well into the 100s today.  In the West, excessive heat
warnings are in effect through the weekend for parts of south-central
California, the California deserts, as well as the Phoenix metro.  Daytime
temperatures across these areas are expected reach well into the triple
digits both days.

With the upper high forecast to build farther to the north over the
weekend, an Excessive Heat Watch is in effect for portions of northern
Utah, including Salt Lake City, for tomorrow.  The heat will also begin to
build across the northern Plains over the weekend.  Well above-normal to
record-breaking temperatures are expected across much of the northern
Plains on Sunday, before reaching into the Upper Midwest by Monday.

A slow-moving frontal boundary extending from the Mid Atlantic to the
central Plains will be a focus for showers and thunderstorms today.  On
Sunday, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop along the front and
move northeast from the mid Mississippi Valley toward the Great Lakes,
drawing an increase in moisture up through the Ohio Valley.  This will
support an increasing threat for heavy rain and the potential for
localized flash flooding across the Ohio Valley on Sunday into early
Monday.

Showers and thunderstorms are also likely across the Southwest, with
monsoonal moisture fueling development each day.  While providing
beneficial rains for some, these storms may also pose a flash flooding
threat, especially across vulnerable burn scar areas.   

In the Northwest, a cold front is expected to push across the region, but
with little precipitation and gusty winds expected.  This combination of
elevated winds and dry conditions is forecast to raise fire weather
concerns across portions of the region, particularly across parts of
southern Oregon and northern California, where Red Flag Warnings have been
issued for areas east of the Cascades.

Pereira

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php