Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
308 PM EDT Sat Jul 23 2022

Valid 00Z Sun Jul 24 2022 - 00Z Tue Jul 26 2022

...Record breaking heat wave continues from Mid-South to Northeast this
weekend....

...Severe thunderstorms capable of producing flash flooding to spread from
Midwest today and tomorrow to Mid-Atlantic/Northeast on Monday...

...Monsoonal moisture to gradually bring locally heavy rains and isolated
flash flooding across portions of the Southwest into the Southern Rockies
through Monday...

Upper-level ridging across the mid-southern tier, and shortwave energy
pulsating across the northern tier states will drive most of the sensible
weather threats over the next couple of days. A low pressure system and
attendant cold front rotating across the Upper Mississippi Valley will
bring thunderstorms and heavy rain leading to flash flooding from southern
Minnesota to northern Indiana tonight where a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of
excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding is in effect. Some
thunderstorms may turn severe across the Central Plains, Middle/Upper
Mississippi Valley and Midwest. An Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe
weather was issued for parts of southern Minnesota to western Michigan
through tonight where damaging thunderstorm gusts, tornadoes and very
large hail will be possible. Severe weather and flash flooding is expected
to continue to impact these areas tomorrow as the cold front sweeps
through the Midwest. Elsewhere, low temperature records may be tied or
broken across parts of the mid-section and Northeast tonight as lows
struggle to drop below the 70s and 80s.

As the upper ridge settles over the East coast, temperatures will soar.
Widespread high temperature records are forecast to be tied or broken from
the Mid-Atlantic up into New England tomorrow with many places expected to
hit the upper 90s and heat indices to eclipse 100 degrees. Heat advisories
are in effect for much of these ares and Excessive Heat Warnings are in
effect for the Philadelphia, Trenton and Wilmington metro areas as
widespread nighttime lows are expected to be broken tomorrow. The fire
hose that is the Southwestern Monsoon tap is expected to open up tomorrow
and produce scattered to isolated thunderstorms and heavy rains with
localized flash flooding across portions the Four corners region. Slight
Risks of flash flooding are in effect for parts of southern Arizona and
central Colorado tomorrow and just southern Arizona on Monday. Showers and
thunderstorms arrive over the Mid-Atlantic, Central Appalachians and
Northeast on Monday where flash flooding and severe weather are possible.
Slight Risks of excessive rainfall and severe thunderstorms are in effect
for parts of these areas as a result.

Kebede


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php