Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
318 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2022

Valid 00Z Mon Jul 25 2022 - 00Z Wed Jul 27 2022

...Excessive heat to continue across portions of the Central Plains and
Middle Mississippi Valley through Tuesday while Northeast and Mid-Atlantic
moderate a bit....

...Severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall possible from Middle
Mississippi Valley to Northeast...

...Monsoonal moisture to cause daily rounds of excessive rainfall and
isolated flash flooding across portions of the Southwest and Southern
Rockies through Tuesday...

Searing heat will continue across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast tonight
before the upper trough over Canada dips down into the region to moderate
temperatures a bit tomorrow. Widespread low temperature records are
forecast to be broken across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast tonight as
lows struggle to drop below the upper 70s and low 80s. 100F+ degree days
to continue across parts of eastern Kansas/Oklahoma into southern Missouri
and northern Arkansas over the next couple of days, due to a rigid area of
high pressure remaining stationed over the region. Area wide heat index
values likely to be between 105-111F on Monday. Anomalously warm
temperatures visit the Pacific Northwest this week as an upper-level ridge
amplifies over the region. High temperatures are forecast to steadily rise
over the next few days leading to the possibility for records to be
broken. Excessive heat watches, warnings and advisories are in effect for
all of the aforementioned areas.

Meanwhile, an elongated surface front will continue to be the focus for
severe weather and flash flooding risk from the Central Plains/Rockies to
the Northeast over the next several days. Rounds of convection will impact
portions of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes tonight leading to the
potential for localized heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms. An
Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms is in effect for parts of the Lower
Great Lakes/interior Northeast for tonight as damaging wind gusts and
tornadoes threaten the region. The severe weather threat shifts into the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic coast on Monday while the greatest flash flooding
risk settles over the Central Appalachians and Middle Mississippi Valley
through midweek due to the surface front stalling out.

Elsewhere, impulses of upper-level energy will shoot up into the Southwest
from Mexico allowing for monsoonal moisture to flow into the region. This
will lead to heavy rain and flash flooding to take place over large swaths
of Arizona the Four Corners and Colorado over the next couple of days.
Slight Risks of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding are in
effect. Scattered to isolated thunderstorms will also impact those areas
during this period.

Kebede


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php