Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022

Valid 00Z Tue Jul 26 2022 - 00Z Thu Jul 28 2022

...Excessive heat to continue across portions of the Southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley into mid-week while a heat wave takes hold of the
Northwest...

...A stormy and wet weather pattern to impact the Middle Mississippi
Valley to the central Appalachians...

...Monsoonal moisture to cause daily rounds of excessive rainfall and
flash flooding across portions of the Southwest and Southern Rockies
through mid-week...

The upper level pattern over the lower 48 will feature upper level
troughing over the north-central to northeastern U.S. while anomalous
ridging moves into or expands across the Pacific Northwest and Deep South.
The result at the surface will be hot and humid weather continuing from
Texas and Oklahoma, eastward to the Mississippi River Valley. In addition,
a heat wave will set up over the northwestern U.S. with increasing
temperatures through Wednesday from the Cascades to the Northern Rockies.

High temperatures from northern Texas into Oklahoma, southern Missouri and
Arkansas are expected to be about 100 to 105 each day through Wednesday
with locally higher temperatures approaching 110 possible across northern
and northeastern Oklahoma. When combined with humidity, these temperatures
will feel even hotter, with forecast heat index values expected to climb
into the 105 to 115 degree range during the daytime. Across the Northwest,
high temperatures are forecast to generally run from the middle 90s to
middle 100s each day through at least Wednesday with a gradual trend
warmer each day through mid-week. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat
Advisories are in place for both sections of the U.S. given the dangerous
heat in the forecast.

Meanwhile, a heat wave will break across the Northeast and northern
Mid-Atlantic as a cold front moves through the region this evening and
tonight. The front will stall on Tuesday from the Mid-Atlantic coast into
the Ohio Valley and westward along the Kansas/Oklahoma border. The front
will separate the hot weather described above to its south from average or
cooler than average temperatures extending from the northern High Plains
into portions of the Upper Ohio Valley and Northeast.

The front will remain an active focus for thunderstorms from the Great
Plains to the East Coast each day. Severe weather and the potential for
flash flooding will be found along the front with a particular focus for
flooding expected from the Middle Mississippi Valley into the central
Appalachians. Some locations are expected to see two to four inches of
rain through Wednesday evening.

Across the Southwestern U.S., monsoonal moisture will remain in place with
seasonal to above average dewpoints and daily chances of slow moving
thunderstorms capable of producing very heavy rain over a short period of
time. Slight Risks of Excessive Rainfall exist from the Lower Colorado
River Valley into the Four Corners region, eastward to the Colorado/New
Mexico border. Areas most at risk for flash flooding will be near burn
scars, within slot canyons, and in locations with abnormally saturated
soils.

Otto


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php