Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
428 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2022

Valid 12Z Fri Jul 29 2022 - 12Z Sun Jul 31 2022

...Additional rounds of excessive rainfall across parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys are expected to trigger areas of flash flooding
today...

...Daily rounds of heavy downpours could cause flash flooding from Arizona
to the Mid-South region over the next few days...

...Excessive heat continues in the Pacific Northwest; hot and humid across
the Deep South; cool air over the Central Plains expected to shift
eastward...

Embedded shortwave energy moving from the Central Plains into the Ohio
Valley will be the driving force behind Flash flooding threats this
weekend. A surface front extending from the Central Plains to the
Northeast will be the focus for heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding
today. The heaviest rainfall is likely to occur over the panhandles of
Texas/Oklahoma, where a couple inches of rain may lead to flash flooding.
A moderate risk (level 3/4) is in effect for portions of that area, as
well as parts of West Virginia into eastern Kentucky. A multi-day precip
event over the Ohio Valley is responsible for the moderate risk over West
Virginia/Kentucky. A Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms is in effect for
parts of the Mid-Atlantic coast today as a lead shortwave trough spins
through the region this afternoon. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the
main threat from these storms. A cold pool develops to the north of the
Central Plains front today before migrating eastward on Saturday and
Sunday. High temperatures over parts of eastern Colorado and into Kansas
will be in the low-to-mid 70s today as a result.

A plume of Gulf moisture will interact with the now quasi-stationary front
over the Mid-South on Saturday, leading to heavy rainfall and more flash
flooding concerns for parts of the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi
Valley. This flash flooding threat shifts eastward into the Tennessee
Valley and Mid-Atlantic on Sunday as the aformentioned shortwave energy
arrives. Monsoonal moisture continues to advect into the Southwest,
leading to the threat of Flash flooding this weekend. Slight Risks of
excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding are in effect for this area
during this period.

An upper ridge will continue a record setting end to the month over
portions of the Pacific Northwest, as high temperatures are likely to be
in the 100s+ this weekend. Potentially record setting night time lows in
the upper 60s and 70s will lead to dangerous conditions. Excessive heat
warnings and heat advisories are in effect from the Pacific Northwest to
the Central Great Basin. Necessary precautions should be taken. Warm air
will shfit into the Northern Central Plains over the coming days as the
Pacific ridge moves eastward. A retrograding ridge shiting from the
western Atlantic into the Deep South will bring hot and humid conditions
to the region this weekend.

Kebede


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php