Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Fri Jul 29 2022

Valid 00Z Sat Jul 30 2022 - 00Z Mon Aug 01 2022

...Focus of excessive rainfall shifts toward the central High Plains
eastward to the interior Deep South into tonight as a cold front brings
much improved weather across the Ohio Valley to the northern Mid-Atlantic
into Saturday...

...Daily rounds of heavy downpours could cause flash flooding from Arizona
to the Mid-South region over the next few days...

...Excessive heat over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to shift eastward
into the northern High Plains through the weekend...

After multiple days of inclement weather and cases of historic flood
events across the Midwest eastward to the Kentucky, a cool air mass across
the Great Lakes is forecast to bring some much improved weather to the
flood-stricken areas as we head into the weekend.  As the cool air mass
continues to advance eastward, showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold
front will steadily progress across the central Appalachians and the
northern Mid-Atlantic through tonight before drier and cooler air filters
further into the northeastern quadrant of the country on Saturday. 
Meanwhile, the southwestern portion of the front will remain nearly
stationary across the southern Plains through Saturday as wave of low
pressure is forecast to form and moves eastward along the front.  This
will keep the threat of the heavy rain in place from the central High
Plains eastward through the Tennessee Valley into Saturday, with the
highest threat of heavy rain over the central High Plains into tonight. 
By Sunday, the main energy associated with the frontal wave is forecast to
shift eastward into the Tennessee Valley and then begins to lift
northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic by Sunday evening as the central
Plains will have a chance to dry out a bit.

Meanwhile, monsoonal moisture is forecast to persist across Arizona to the
Four-corners region into the weekend.  Day-time heating will continue to
trigger scattered thunderstorms across the region each day.
Some of the thunderstorms will likely contain heavy downpours that could
lead to flash flooding concerns especially over burn scars.  The chance of
heavy rain appears to decrease slightly across the region later on Sunday
as the upper ridge over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to shift east
toward the northern Plains.  This will bring increasing heat into the
northern High Plains by the weekend.

Kong


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php