Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
338 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2022

Valid 12Z Sat Jul 30 2022 - 12Z Mon Aug 01 2022

...Excessive rainfall leading to Flash flooding possible for Southwest and
Middle Mississippi Valley to Mid-Atlantic; Central/Southern Plains today...

...Excessive heat persists over the Pacific Northwest through the weekend
as heat begins to build over the Northern Plains; cooldown for midsection
of the country...

Shortwave energy will be responsible for flash flooding threats from the
Southwest to Mid-Atlantic over the next few days. Heavy rain will form
around a quasi-stationary surface front extending from the Mid-Atlantic
coast to the Southern Plains. Today, heavy rainfall leading to flash
flooding is likely to develop over northern Arkansas and southwestern
Missouri where a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash
Flooding is in effect. The heavy rain threat shifts eastward on Sunday as
the Tennessee Valley and Central/Southern Appalachians become the most
affected areas. 1-2 inches of rainfall may occur over much of Tennessee
where a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect. Flash flooding may
also develop over parts of northern and eastern Arkansas where additional
rainfall could exacerbate any effects from the heavy rainfall that occurs
today. More rainfall is on tap for parts of central to eastern Tennessee
on Monday which could lead to more flash flooding due antecedent rainfall
from Sunday. A Slight risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect as a result.

Elsewhere, monsoonal moisture is expected to continue flowing into the
Southwest over the next few days, which will setup the threat of heavy
rainfall leading to Flash flooding in that area. A Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall is in effect through Sunday. A backbuilding area of
high pressure will settle over the Southern Rockies/Plains allowing for
the advection of warm air into the Southeast and Southern Plains. Cold air
will filter into the Central Plains today dropping daytime highs into the
low 70s. This cool airmass will moderate as it shifts east into the
Midwest over the coming days.

Excessive heat is expected to continue across the Pacific Northwest
through Sunday as daytime highs in the 100s and nighttime lows in the
upper 60s to low 70s are likely to tie or break temperature records.
Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect for these areas,
so proper precautions should be taken, such as staying cool and hydrated.
The upper ridge responsible for the dangerous heat in the Pacific
Northwest will shift eastward and send temperatures soaring well above
average over parts of the Northern/Central Plains early next week.

Kebede


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php