Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
339 AM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022

Valid 12Z Tue Aug 2 2022 - 12Z Thu Aug 4 2022

...Monsoonal Rains to continue across much of the Southwest U.S. through
midweek...

...Some Relief from Record High Temperatures across the Northwest...

...Fire Weather Threat to continue from the Northwest into the Northern
High Plains..

The heat wave continues across much of the Central U.S. going into the
middle of the week as a strong upper level ridge builds in and results in
generally sinking air and mostly sunny skies.  Therefore, heat advisories
are in effect from southern Minnesota to Oklahoma and Arkansas, where
daytime highs will likely reach into the upper 90s to low 100s, and heat
indices perhaps reaching 110 degrees when combined with high dewpoints. 
The anomalous heat is then forecast to reach the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast by Thursday as highs generally reach into the 95-100 degree
range ahead of the cold front.  For the Pacific Northwest, much more
pleasant temperatures can be expected compared to the recent heat wave.

In terms of rainfall prospects, moisture will continue to linger in place
across much of the Intermountain West through the middle of the week and
also the Desert Southwest, although the convective activity should be more
scattered in nature compared to the widespread storms and flooding that
has been observed over the past few days.  A corridor of organized showers
and storms is likely to develop late Wednesday and into early Thursday
across portions of the Midwest and the Great Lakes ahead of a cold front,
with some potential of 1-2 inch rainfall totals and perhaps a few severe
storms.  Heavy rain is also expected to be ongoing across portions of the
Ohio Valley early Tuesday morning, with some instances of flooding
possible.

Fire weather concerns will also continue to make headlines across much of
the interior northwestern U.S. and extending eastward across Montana and
western North Dakota.  A combination of gusty winds and low humidities
will increase the potential for wildfires, and some high based
thunderstorms with limited rainfall and cloud-to-ground lightning may also
be cause for concern on Tuesday.  The fire weather risk is likely to
persist going into Wednesday as well across portions of the interior
Pacific Northwest and central Montana.

Hamrick

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php