Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
324 AM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022

Valid 12Z Wed Aug 3 2022 - 12Z Fri Aug 5 2022

...Monsoonal Rains to continue across much of the Southwest U.S. as heavy
rain and possibly severe thunderstorms move across the Great Lakes/Midwest
during the next couple of days...

...Hot temperatures are expected on Thursday across the Mid-Atlantic and
parts of the Northeast...

...Fire Weather Threat to continue from the Northwest into the northern
High Plains..

The heat wave continues across much of the Central U.S. going into the end
of the week as a strong upper level ridge builds in and results in
generally sinking air and mostly sunny skies.  Therefore, heat advisories
are in effect from central Texas to the southern Great Lakes, where
daytime highs will likely reach into the middle 90s to low 100s, and heat
indices perhaps reaching 110 degrees when combined with high dewpoints for
some areas.  The anomalous heat is then forecast to reach the Mid-Atlantic
and Northeast by Thursday as highs generally reach into the 95-100 degree
range ahead of the cold front, and heat advisories have already been
issued for this as well.

In terms of rainfall prospects, moisture will continue to linger in place
across much of the Intermountain West through the end of the week and also
the Desert Southwest, with the heaviest rainfall expected across the
Sierra Nevada, the Front Range of the Rockies, and southeastern Arizona. 
A corridor of organized showers and storms is likely to develop late
Wednesday and into Thursday from Missouri to Michigan ahead of a cold
front, with some potential of 1-3 inch rainfall totals and localized
flooding.  In addition, there is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms
within this same general corridor for Wednesday. 

Fire weather concerns will also continue to make headlines across much of
the interior northwestern U.S. and extending eastward across Montana.  A
combination of gusty winds and low humidities will increase the potential
for wildfires, and some high based thunderstorms with limited rainfall and
cloud-to-ground lightning may also be cause for concern on Wednesday.  The
fire weather risk is likely to persist going into Thursday as well across
portions of the interior Pacific Northwest and central Montana.

Hamrick

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php