Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
412 PM EDT Wed Aug 03 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Aug 04 2022 - 00Z Sat Aug 06 2022

...Monsoonal rains across the Southwest is forecast to expand northward by
Friday as heavy rain and possibly severe thunderstorms move across the
Great Lakes/Midwest through tonight...

...Heat is expected to build across the northern Plains and the Northeast
for the next couple of days...

...Fire Weather Threat to continue from the Northwest into the northern
High Plains..

A cool upper trough moving into the Pacific Northwest will gradually
spread cooler than normal temperatures further inland, bringing an end to
the recent heat wave across the region.  In contrast, southerly flow and
downslope winds will bring a brief heat wave across the northern Plains
for the next couple of days before the cooler air arrives behind a cold
front.  The Northeast will see heat building across the region as high
temperatures are forecast to reach 95-100 degrees Thursday afternoon
followed by another hot afternoon on Friday but with the arrival of
showers and thunderstorms.  Meanwhile, triple-digit heat will remain the
rule over the central U.S. through the end of the week under a deep layer
upper level ridge with generally sinking air and mostly sunny skies. 
Therefore, heat advisories are in effect from central Texas to the
southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.  Heat advisories are also in effect
for parts of the Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic where higher humidity
could result in heat indices soaring well above 100 degrees on Thursday
and Friday afternoons.

In terms of rainfall prospects, moisture will continue to linger in place
across much of the Intermountain West as well as the Desert Southwest
through the end of the week, with the heaviest rainfall expected across
the Sierra Nevada, the Front Range of the Rockies, and southeastern
Arizona.  An area of organized heavy showers and storms is forecast across
the mid-Mississippi Valley to the Midwest tonight and into Thursday ahead
of a cold front, with some potential of 1-3 inch rainfall totals and
localized flooding.  Meanwhile, severe thunderstorms across the Great
Lakes should become less active by Thursday as they move farther south
into the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. 

Fire weather concerns will also continue to make headlines across much of
the interior northwestern U.S. and extending eastward across Montana.  A
combination of gusty winds and low humidities will increase the potential
for wildfires, and some high-based thunderstorms with limited rainfall and
cloud-to-ground lightning may also be cause for concern into Thursday.  By
Friday, increasing moisture drawn northward from the monsoonal moisture in
the Southwest will lead to increasing rain chances across the northern
Rockies as a cold front edges in from the north and becomes nearly
stationary.

Kong/Hamrick

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php